November 13th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 11-13-2012
The markets closed down after taking a nose dive around 3 pm taking most of the averages down to almost the opening numbers. Several, including the Russell 2000 remained BELOW resistance levels signaling and any near-term bull run is in serious doubt. (As in, it ain't gonna happen!) There was more selling and I wish I could tell if it was from the 'dippers' earlier buying spree. The bottom line is some folks lost money today.
The markets closed down with the $RUT and the DOW being the big losers for the day.
This news item is going to open a few eyes and then we have the US 'fiscal cliff' coming up.
The U.S. federal budget deficit expanded to $120 billion in October from $98.5 billion in the same month the year before, the Treasury Department said. Economists expected a reading of $114 billion.
Moments ago the MTS released the final October budget report. It was not pretty . . .
The US budget deficit was expected to soar after the September surplus of $75 billion, driven entirely by calendar shifts and pre-election propaganda, to -$113 billion. That was optimistic: the total amount of overspending in October was $120 billion.
What is distressing is that this was well above the $98.5 billion deficit from a year ago, and confirms that the long-term trendline of ever greater spending continues.
This was also the fourth largest October deficit in history. And looking merely at the spending side of the ledger, the US government's outlays in October alone were $304 billion.
This is the third biggest October monthly spend for the government ever, and just why of the all time high $320.4 billion record in October 2008, when everything imploded after Lehman failure and Hank Paulson was literally dousing the monetary flames with brand new Benjamins.
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell and continuing into the closing bell, just as it has been for the past month. I just wish my crystal ball would give me a glimpse into what tomorrow will be. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume.
I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 12756 down 59 or -0.46%.
The 500 is at 1374 down 5.50 or -0.40%.
The $RUT is at 789.01 down 4.75 or -0.60%.
SPY is at 137.74 down 0.51 or -0.37%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bearish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was down today and is trading even at 85.19 trading between 85.96 and 84.58 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude was up today and is trading down at 108.04 trading between 108.90 and 107.38 and the bias is neutral to negative.
Gold is down this morning. Currently trading down at 1724.65, trading range is between 1733.25 and 1718.04 with a neutral bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.47 up from 3.42 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 81.31 earlier to 81.04 and is currently trading up at 81.17.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
After the bell Tuesday, Cisco said it earned 48 cents an adjusted share in the first quarter on revenue of $11.9 billion, while Wall Street was looking for earnings of 46 cents a share on sales of $11.8 billion. The shares are slightly higher in after-hours trading.
@4:25 the SP500 futures has slipped to 1371.65
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary