November 9th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
pening Market Commentary For 11-09-2012
Markets opened slightly down, subdued and accompanied by no other than the low volume syndrome. Suspecting a day off after 2 sessions of decline of somewhat epic proportions the averages muddled through the first half hour with out any major moves. Interestingly the 'BTFD Dippers' jumped in and brought the majors back up to yesterday's session close.
By 10 am a minor rally of sorts was underway with the bull and bears in a classic tug of war where the bulls have a slight advantage. Too early to guess which way the markets will go, but advancing to the down channel resistance formed yesterday is a real possibility. Moving above it is not viewed possible today, Monday maybe.
Turning to the EU once again we see the ever present problems that Europe [is] Back In The Spotlight The EU has not left nor has any of the issues been resolved, quite the opposite.
With expectations that Europe will once again become a flaming powder keg after the US elections are over running high, Europe has so far not disappointed.
And as usual, the focal catalyst of greatest pain remains Greece, which is only now learning what ZH readers knew days ago, namely that the Greek "austerity" vote was merely theater, and that Europe, i.e., Germany, has certainly not decided to release any of the much needed cash that Greece needs not only to run its society but to make a key bond payment on November 16.
Confirming this was German finance ministry spokeswoman Marianne Kothe, who said on Friday that Eurozone finance ministers will probably not be able to decide at their upcoming Eurogroup meeting on Monday whether to disburse a badly-needed €31.5 billion loan tranche to Greece, as MNI reported earlier.
"Speaking at a regular government press conference here, Kothe reminded that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble needs the approval of the German Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, before being able to approve any further aid for Greece.
“It will be difficult to achieve this by next Monday,” she said." In other words, the Greek default is suddenly in the hands of the German people, of whom at last check about 60% wanted Greece gone.
There is yet hope for Greece, with a story overnight running that George Soros is ready to commit "serious funds to aid Greece." Surely that generosity too will end well for the Greek people who by now must feel as if they are in the 5th circle of a NWO globalization hell.
The RRR** was almost tradeable at the opening bell, but not as wide as it was the past 2 sessions. Still with the ever present worry that a reversal could come at any time is worrisome. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume. Currently, it is the low volume that makes trades problematic as the HFT computers can reverse the market trend into something else which may not be to your liking.
I also have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor. Be patient as the time to jump in may be around the corner.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 12819 up 7.35 or 0.06%.
The 500 is at 1381 up 3.54 or 0.26%.
The $RUT is at 794.89 up 1.23 or 0.15%.
SPY is at 138.42 up 0.36 or 0.26%.
The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is bearish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was down today and is at 85.19 trading between 84.10 and 85.60 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude was down today and is at 106.84 trading between 107.65 and 106.25 and the bias is positive.
Gold was down this morning, now up. Currently trading up at 1723.35, trading range is between 1726.00 and 1738.80 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.43 down from 3.49 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 80.69 earlier to 81.17 and is currently trading at 81.05.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary