November 5th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 11-05-2012
Premarket SP500 futures were down to 1402 and by the opening rose to 1407. The 500 closed at 1414 Friday dropped to 1410 at the opening and by 9:45 it was settled at 1412 on low volume of course.
I was expecting a down day this morning as my proprietary indicators pointed in that direction. Also because Friday was down, the news from the EU is sour and Greece is now expected to default. A combination that can't possibly be vied as positive when the UK is talking about a triple dip on top of the already bad news.
The markets are generally showing weakness, low volume and flat. I my opinion is that Presidential election results will not sway the averages one way or the other tomorrow in the face of an ALREADY DECLINING market. The 'fiscal cliff' coming January first will be a presidential market mover.
The high rated financial US ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (OCT) is expected at 11 am and will be report here in the midday commentary. While the expected 54.5 in my opinion is a tad optimistic my indications are for the 53.9 area but certainly not to exceed the last report of 55.1.
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell, just as it has been for the past month. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume.
I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 13049 down 40 or -0.29%.
The 500 is at 1409 down 5.00 or -0.35%.
The $RUT is at 813.99 down 0.36 or -0.04%.
SPY is at 141.10 down 0.47 or -0.33%.
The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is bearish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was up today and is at 84.90 trading between 84.35 and 85.36 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude was down early then went up and is now down at 105.40 trading between 106.20 and 04.50 and the bias is positive.
Gold was down earlier then went up to the early morning highs. Currently trading up at 1682.81, trading range is between 1683.70 and 1672.71 with a neutral bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.46 down from 3.50 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 80.59 earlier to 80.92 and is currently trading at 80.88.
• UK's economy will grow faster than other European countries
• 'Mafiosi' to gain most from Cyprus bail-out
• Bank of England to vote against stimulus
• ECB investigates if Spanish loans broke rules
• Merkel: crisis will last at least another five years
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary