November 2nd, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 11-02-2012
SPY and the SP500 moved up earlier to the 50 day MA and backed off, not a bullish maneuver. The $RUT has remained in its downward channel, again not exactly bullish.
By the closing bell the markets closed down JUST AS I SAID it would yesterday. National pundits are claiming that it is the commodities fault for selling off. I have news for you guys, it is this 'house of cards' that Bernanke built that isn't supporting its weight. Just look at the Russell 2000 making a bee-line for lower numbers. I say it is IMPOSSIBE for the averages to continue melting up with out the participation of the lower caps.
Here is the $RUT distinctly showing it downward spiral.
(Click on chart for a larger view)
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell and remained that way until the close, just as it has been for the past month. We had a nice jump upwards from yesterday's close if you were inclined to 'guess' the market was going to be up this morning. However, any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume.
I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13093 down 140 or -1.05%.
The 500 is at 1414 down 13.39 or -0.94%.
The $RUT is at 814.37 down 13.48 or -1.63%.
SPY is at 141.19 down 1.63 or -1.15%.
The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is bearish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was down earlier today and has since moved back up and is down again at 84.90 trading between 87.05 and 84.64 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude is up today and is at 105.75 trading between 105.60 and 108.80 and the bias is negative.
Gold gaped down this morning in an unusual bearish move. Currently trading down at 1678.20, trading range is between 1675.00 and 1716.50 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.48 down from 3.56 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.92 earlier to 80.67 and is currently trading at 80.66. It did gap up from 80.40 to 80.71 and I expect that gap to be closed probably today early next week.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary