October 31st, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 10-31-2012
Today is turning out to look just like last week. Pick out any day's chart from last week and insert it for today. So much for the volatility that was being hyped. Low volume, some selling and otherwise a lackluster session.
Well, we have the Jobs numbers to look forward too.
Following this morning's dismal employment sub-index from Chicago Fed PMI and the recent Philly Fed employment sub-index, the 'data' suggests that this week's (now confirmed by the BLS that NFP will be released on Friday as scheduled) payroll data could be the first negative print since September 2010. Of course, we are sure that pre-emptive Sandy 'action' and seasonal adjustments will explain away any miss from the current +125k estimate. Is this why the market is not levitating on [more] broken windows?
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell, just as it has been for the past month. 'Guessing' during last Friday's closing hour what the market was going to do on Monday, err Tuesday, Wednesday would have brought in a nice profit. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume.
I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 13085 down 21 or -0.16%.
The 500 is at 1408 down 3.21 or -0.22%.
The $RUT is at 813.25 down 0.01 or -0.00%.
SPY is at 141.01 down 0.35 or -0.25%.
The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is bearish to neutral and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was up today and is at 86.67 trading between 85.60 and 87.15 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude was up today and is now down at 109.22 trading between 108.85 and 109.80 and the bias is negative.
Gold is up this morning. Currently trading neutral at 1723.49, trading range is between 1709.10 and 1725.35 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.52 down from 3.56 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 80.05 earlier to 79.72 and has risen back up to 80.04 is currently trading at 80.00.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary