October 30th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 10-30-2012
I know it is bad in Manhattan this morning and the US stock market is closed but the World continues to turn. The futures at 8 am were down with the DOW off -18, the 500 off -0.60 and the NASDAQ off -8.50. ADVFN reports, “The main European equity benchmarks are now registering moderate gains, reversing yesterday´s price action. That as New York equity futures resumed trading overnight, and are now pointing to just moderate falls when trading resumes.”
By 9:30 futures being reported by CNN indicated the DOW was off -16, the 500 off -0.10 and the NASDAQ off -12.25.
At 10 am the US Consumer Confidence report survey has been postponed until Thursday because of the hurricane.
(There will not be a midday commentary report today, but will have a Closing commentary to close out the day'
The first column is what was reported today and the second is what was expected by analysts. The third column is the last report.
I mentioned yesterday Wednesday US markets might be closed too, but so far that hasn't been confirmed yet. There is some testing going on to allow electronic trading to resume.
Leavitt said it best regarding the closed stock market situation.
The stock market is closed again today.
Yesterday I let it pass; today I'm going to
say this is BS. I know there's been a lot of
destruction in NY; billions of dollars of damage.
But this is 2012. Where are the contingency
plans? Most trading is done electronically; we
can do without the floor of the exchange for
a few days. The market should not be closed.
The World moves on in spite of a little bit of water. The next US market opening is going to be interesting as there has been a lot more water dropping off the World's waterfall than in Manhattan.
Another day, another dose of bad news from the euro-zone. Spain reported that its economy contracted by 0.3% in Q3, and 1.6% year over year. While this was somewhat better than -0.4% that was expected, it still is a fourth consecutive quarter of contraction, or a fifth that doesn’t see growth.
Germany disappointed once again with a rise of 20K in the number of unemployed people – double the early expectations. The unemployment rate in Germany stands at 6.9%. Last month’s figure was revised from 6.8% to 6.9%. The German economy is still doing very well, but it isn’t immune.
Read the rest of the article Spanish Economy Contracts, German Unemployment Rises
...but there is a silver lining. "While natural disasters take a large initial toll on the economy, they usually generate some extra activity afterward,” Moody's Analytics says, expecting lost output this week to be made up in subsequent weeks and to minimize the impact on Q4 GDP. But the effect is generally spread out over multiple quarters, RBC Capital notes.
However, that is one opinion on natural disasters having a silver lining. On the other side of the coin I see where Personal Incomes Offset By Rise In Food & Energy and that is further indications of a 'not so good' economy.
Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW is closed today because of Hurricane Sandy.
The 500 is is closed today because of Hurricane Sandy.
The $RUT is is closed today because of Hurricane Sandy.
SPY is is closed today because of Hurricane Sandy.
The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is bearish and the current bias is neutral.
WTI oil is up today and is at 85.89 trading between 86.22 and 85.10 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude was up today and is now melting down at 109.21 trading between 108.72 and 110.15 and the bias is negative.
Gold is up this morning. Currently trading up at 1709.84, trading range is between 1704.75 and 1714.50 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.51 down from 3.53 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 80.36 earlier to 79.93 and is currently trading at 80.00.
European markets are broadly higher today with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 1.27% while Germany's DAX is up 1.18% and London's FTSE 100 is up 0.93%.
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Written by Gary