October 26th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 10-26-2012
Up and down, well mostly choppy today as the session ended flat and a tight trading range. This weeks averages ended on a down note and the last 3 sessions have been a consolidating for a move one way of another, probably next week.
There were times today I thought we were going to see a negative day, but the bulls fought back. This is really an unbelievable marketplace of the like I have never seen before. Confusing, unpredictable and obviously manipulated.
I hope you were careful of the 'BTFD dippers' jumping in and raining on your parade if you were thinking of shorting as they did around 1:30.
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell, just as it has been for the past month and continued up to the closing bell. Any trades today probably ended up on the unprofitable side. As long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume trading will be most difficult. If you had guessed AAPL was going to tank and shorted the market before the close yesterday, your profits this morning would have been very nice. But there is that guessing thing again.
I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the day trading range has been so narrow that way too money had to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13107 up 3.53 or 0.03%.
The 500 is at 1411 down 1.03 or -0.07%.
The $RUT is at 813.25 down 3.57 or -0.44%.
SPY is at 141.38 down 0.05 or -0.04%.
The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is bearish and the current bias is neutral.
WTI oil was up today and is at 86.14 trading between 84.98 and 86.33 and the bias is neutral.
Brent crude was up today and is at 109.57 trading between 107.40 and 109.60 and the bias is positive.
Gold was down this morning, now it has turned up. Currently trading up at 1712.50, trading range is between 1701.05 and 1716.98 with a neutral to bearish bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.56 up from 3.53 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.90 earlier to 80.37 and is currently trading lower at 80.13 after rising from 80.00 around noon.
The 500 at the close. If the charts can be trusted, it would appear we are consolidating for the next leg down.
The DOW at the close.
It's AAPL? It's GDP? It's Europe? It's the fiscal cliff? The real answer to why the market/AAPL is down today is clearly laid out in the table below.
A stunning 30 of the 40 Fed employees on Bloomberg (that's 75% for the Keynesians) is red - or out of the office today. The PPT is OOTO! Good to know all that taxpayer money covering these terminals is going to good use! Also keep an eye on Kevin Henry's dot turning yellow from green and vice versa.
The NY Fed trader's presence, or absence, at his desk may be the only risk on/risk off signal left in today's market.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary