Bear Trap Or Some Profit Taking

October 19th, 2012
in Gary's blogging

Midday Market Commentary For 10-19-2012

Volume leveled out by noon. Still very low by pre 2008 standards, but above the past several sessions indicating more profit taking than usual and those investors that are abandoning ship. As I write the averages are still melting down and like others, I don't have a clue where it is going to stop. As I have said before, I do not expect drops (or rises) to exceed the 2% mark, but today's decent may come close to that mark.

Follow up:

Is today's decline representing the tipping point some pundits have been expecting? I do not think we will really know for a week or so but keep your options to exit available depending on your exposure of course. I have seen several convincing reports on why the markets still have more to inch up.


The Dow is down [153] points, or [1.12]%, after lackluster quarterly reports by a handful of blue-chip companies soured sentiment on Wall Street. Looking at the broader markets, every major sector is in the red, led by industrial and materials stocks.

The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell and continuing into the midday hour, just as it has been for the past month. There was a nice jump, but that occurred in the premarket before the opening. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume.

I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.

Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.

The DOW at 12:00 is at 13396 down 152 or -1.13%.

The 500 is at 1439 down 17.50 or -1.19%.

The $RUT is at 824.44 down 12.68 or -1.51%.

SPY is at 144.17 down 1.66 or -1.14%.

The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is bearish and the current bias is down.


WTI oil was up today and is at 90.94 trading between 93.01 and 90.85 and the bias is negative.

Gold is down this morning. Currently trading down at 1718.07, trading range is between 1742.91 and 1715.66.70 with a negative bias.

Dr. Copper is at 3.65 down from 3.74 earlier.

The US dollar rose from 79.14 earlier to 79.74 and is currently trading at 79.71.

Q3 Earnings Season To Date: Revenue Beats: 41%; Misses 59%

The news that is starting to come across the wires is VERY unsettling, but I am not ready to thrown in the towel.

Bill Gross Warns "Very Likely' Central Banks Will Cause 1987-Like Crash

** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

Written by Gary

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