October 18th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 10-18-2012
Premarket futures was down from yesterday's closing and you know it had to happen. But what is unknown is how the market is going to react. If the news is bad it goes sideways, sometimes it melts up and today it appears to be melting down. Some pundits, like Leavitt, are saying, “Longer term I like the market and believe it’s in good overall shape”. Others are preaching caution and believing that waiting for the averages to pierce the overhead resistance that lies in the advancing path is the correct course of action.
First 15 minutes show a low red volume sell off, but unable to see any trend. Could very well be another lackluster, sideways session.
The number of people filing for initial jobless claims surged 46,000 to 388,000 last week, the U.S. government says.
The previous week the number of initial claims had fallen to a four-year low. The large swings illustrate just how volatile the data are from week to week, which is why economists often prefer to look at a four-week moving average.
That indicator increased to 365,500 last week and has been hovering in the 360,000 to 380,000 range since July.
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell, just as it has been for the past month. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume.
I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW at 9:45 is at 13539 down 18 or -0.13 %.
The 500 is at 1457 down 3.32 or -0.23 %.
The $RUT is at 840.82 down 1.74 or -0.21 %.
SPY is at 145.84 down 0.36 or -0.25 %.
The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is neutral to bearish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil is down today and is at 91.14 trading between 92.20 and 90.73 and the bias is positive.
Gold is down this morning. Currently trading up at 1744.54, trading range is between 1752.00 and 1738.08 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.73 down from 3.76 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 78.96 earlier to 79.24 and is currently trading at 79.20.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary