October 17th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 10-17-2012
The 'BTFD dippers' jumped in shortly after the market opened to push the averages to newer weekly highs and quickly approaching a resistance level that was soundly spurned at the end of the first week in October. Somehow I don't see a run up to that level today, what I do see is a covering of gaps both in the USD and $RUT which means the markets have to have a down day somewhere in the near future.
The morning highs didn't go anywhere as the low volume switched back and forth between green and red keeping the market flat and unexciting.
Leavitt said this morning and I agree, “But in the near term I’m still going to classify the situation as being neutral and uncertain because there is no clear trend. The semis put in a solid day yesterday. It’s a good step but there’s lots of resistance overhead. If the market is going to rally, the semis need to improve a bunch.”
However, the 'semis' have clearly not done well in the past month as can be seen in $RUT which is in an undisputed down trend. The past several sessions of significant gains for the Russell 2000, including today, have not broken the down trend and remain in the descending channel. The closing today may be indicative of what Mr. Market has for us in the near term.
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell and remained that way going into the midday mark, just as it has been for the past month. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume.
I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 13544 down 7 or -0.06%.
The 500 is at 1460 up 5.23 or 0.36%.
The $RUT is at 841.26 up 5.82 or 0.70%.
SPY is at 146.12 up 0.58 or 0.40%.
The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is bearish and the current bias is neutral.
WTI oil was up today and is at 91.89 trading between 91.55 and 92.77 and the bias is negative.
Gold was down this morning. Currently trading up at 1751.54, trading range is between 1753.12 and 1742.72 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.74 up from 3.69 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 79.57 earlier to 78.97 and is currently trading at 79.01. (Gap starting at 79.41)
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary