October 4th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 10-04-2012
Premarket DOW was at +56, the 500 up at plus 6 and SPY at 0.64. The key financial reporting had mixed results and the majors sea-sawed a bit when the Initial Jobless claims reported a decline (367K VS. 370K) and the Continuing Jobless claims rose (3281K VS 3275K).
The first 10 minutes after the opening bell the volume was AGAIN anemic and mostly red as the averages melted down, albeit slowly remaining flat. This market place is now a joke and in my opinion a very dangerous place to play. US Factory Orders(AUG) rose (-5.2% VS -5.9%) and the averages showed a glimmer of green slowly climbing upwards a few cents at a time but on anemic volume. The 10:30 numbers are looking good but I suspect the HFT will wait for these fragile numbers to decline before stepping in to melt the markets back up.
All the signs of a catastrophic decline are in place as well as a continued run for the gold ring. The low volume is telling a story of fate for sure, I am just not sure what the story line really is. The lack of aggression on the part of the bulls is telling but it is obvious from the low volume, new investors entering the market place are not part of the equation. The BCCI (below) should also refer to the stock market.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index hits a 3-month high of -36.9, up from last week's -40.8. 71% of respondents say now is a bad time to be buying things, the fewest since mid-July, but 7 points worse than the long-term average 84% still rate the economy as negative, 19 points more than average.
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell and any trades will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market has low volume and remains flat. Swing trading is at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly.
The DOW at 10:30 is at 13589 up 94 or 0.70%.
The 500 is at 1462 up 11 or 0.78%.
The $RUT is at 842.80 up 4 or 0.48%.
SPY is at 146.23 up 1.12 or 0.77%.
The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is neutral to bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil is up today and is at 89.33 trading between 87.92 and 89.40 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude is up today and is at 109.96 trading between 108.02 and 110.12 and the bias is positive.
Gold is up today at 1791.56, trading between 1776.50 and 1794.62 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.80 down from 3.81 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 79.96 earlier to 79.55 and is currently trading at 79.60.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary