September 18th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 09-18-2012
The markets turned in another lackluster day in what remains of the skyrocket rise last Thursday after the QE3 announcement. Averages moved / melted modestly lower throughout the afternoon session but remain flat lingering where they ended up in yesterday's session.
There was very modest profit taking throughout the entire session and the 'dippers' were certainly unsure of buying more which kept the trading range tight. Oils, trucking and the railroads also saw continued weakness during this session while considerable strength has emerged among tobacco stocks according to ADVFN.
Even the traders that have positions appear reluctant to sell as they might miss out on further market gains. I do not have that same confidence, but on the same hand this low volume has me concerned that it is entirely possible to melt the markets up.
Dailyfx said, “Well, that wasn't a very exciting trading day. Don't derive too much of your expectations for direction on that quiet session.”
In “Reversal Time?” I pointed to several sentiment indicators that suggest investors are way too complacent about the risks ahead. A post at Walter Kurtz’s Sober Look (a site worth visiting, I might add), “Risk Aversion the Lowest in Over Two Years,” highlights other meaures that indicate investors have set themselves up for a nasty surprise, including the Fisher-Gartman Risk-On Index, which is trading at its highest level since the index was launched.
The RRR** has remained very narrow from the opening bell and any trades will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat and low volume. Swing trading is at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13564 up 11.54 or 0.09%.
The 500 is at 1459 down 1.87 or 0.13%.
The $RUT is at 856.93 down 1.97 or -0.23%.
SPY is at 146.61 down 0.12 or -0.08%.
The trend is neutral and the current bias is neutral.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
WTI oil is at 95.53 trading between 97.20 and 95.11 and the bias is negative.
Gold is up today at 1770.45, trading between 1751.00 and 1771.10 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.79 up from 3.75 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.05 earlier to 79.36 and is currently trading at 79.29.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:
Written by Gary