September 13th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 09-13-2012
Premarket futures were higher at 8 am and started to melt down prior to the mornings announcement of unemployment benefits jumping to 382,000 and surging Producer Prices. The SP500 futures then rose up to yesterday's highs and stayed there until the opening.
The opening volume was low again at the opening and red. The very slight movement down was not totally unexpected as investors wait for the FED's announcement later today. The averages were mixed at the beginning and soon slipped into the red as the first 15 minutes unraveled. By 10 am the red volume was low to moderate and finally switched to green. However the DOW was only up 2 points.
By 10:15 the markets melted up and may sea-saw until the FED makes its announcement in a few hours.
. . . today's Initial claims report came at 382K, the biggest miss to expectations (370K) in 2 months
. . . The 15K jump is the biggest weekly spike in 2 months and 4th largest this year
. . . With 41K people losing their extended benefits, down by nearly 1.8 million from a year ago
. . . More importantly, producer prices soared by 1.7% in August, up from July's 0.3%, and well above expectations of 1.2%
. . . the biggest M/M spike since the 1.9% surge in June of 2009
. . . primarily by soaring food prices . . . "On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods climbed 2.0 percent for the 12 months ended August 2012, the largest advance since a 2.8-percent increase for the 12 months ended March 2012."
. . . inflation is precisely what Bernanke wants, the FOMC will welcome this news with open arms.
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell and has not varied in the last 4 sessions. Any trades will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat and low volume. Swing trading is at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 13347 up 14.52 or 0.11%.
The 500 is at 1437 up 1.03 or 0.07%.
The $RUT is at 844.17 down 0.95 or -0.11%.
SPY is at 144.37 down 0.04 or -0.03%.
The trend is up and the current bias is up.
WTI oil is at 98.12 trading between 96.80 and 98.60 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude is at 116.78 trading between 115.40 and 117.48 and the bias is positive.
Gold is down today at 1731.47, trading between 1735.90 and 1727.44 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.69 down from 3.70 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.72 earlier to 79.90 and is currently trading at 79.83.
Fresh out of the flashing red headline-a-tron:
IMF OFFICIALS SAY GREECE WILL NEED A THIRD BAILOUT
IMF SAYS GREECE CAN'T FILL FUNDING GAP ON ITS OWN, UP TO EUROZONE AND ECB TO FIND MONEY FOR GREECE
GREECE MET ONLY 22% OF PROGRAM TARGETS FOR 2011
EURO EXIT WOULD SET GREECE BACK BY MANY DECADES
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary