August 29th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 08-29-2012
Premarket SP500 futures were mixed ahead of the US growth numbers which is not surprising as the premarkets have been very sluggish for the past 2 weeks. It took 15 minutes after the growth numbers were announced for the premarket to react in a positive way driving the SP500 futures up 2 points but backed off a point by 9 am.
The markets opened without much fanfare. Flat, low volume and a repeat of days past. Suggest you go out for a round of golf today.
Although not expecting any major market movements today, it would be nice to see something happen other than the same old do-nothing sessions like we have witnessed for the past 2 weeks. The arguments for the markets going in either direction has most investors sitting on the sidelines waiting and watching to see if Ben will shake up the markets in J Hole this Friday. If he says the wrong thing he may become an A Hole.
The morning report from the Commerce Department was expected to show a slight uptick in in growth for the U.S. Economy, however they remained the same except for personal consumption that rose 0.2% to 1.7% while expecting 1.5%. My feeling in this current environment of uncertainty, the sheeples that do the consumer spending are also the last to figure out that there is a problem and should be pulling in, not spending their way into problems. I do not give this one metric much credence of importance, definitely a lagging indicator.
The 10 am reports on pending home sales, oil and distillate inventories was more or less positive as pending home sales for (YoY) rose 15.0% higher than the 11.1% expected. The oils and gold on the other hand dropped radically and the equities markets did nothing.
Leavitt said this morning, “Quick trades are the name of the game. We need to be content with small profits right now…if you choose to trade at all.” I seriously doubt one can trade anything and stake out a profit in these narrow markets without taking on a great deal of risk. Now is not the time to take chances as this market is poised to make a significant swing.
The RRR** is again very narrow at the opening bell and any trades probably will end up on the unprofitable side while this market remains flat. Swing trading is at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing
The DOW at 10:15 is at 13108 up 6.11 or 0.05%.
The 500 is at 1411 up 1.70 or 0.12%.
The $RUT is at 815.40 up 1.11 or 0.40%.
SPY is at 141.56 up 0.15 or 0.11%.
The trend is neutral and the current bias is neutral.
WTI oil is at 95.54 trading between 96.30 and 95.25 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude is at 112.64 trading between 113.30 and 111.50 and the bias is negative.
Gold is at 1662.61 trading between 1669.60 and 1659.08 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.44 down from 3.46 earlier.
Earlier the USD tumbled from 81.52 to 81.35. It then rose on the US economic data to 81.58 and is currently at 81.52.
After sliding from a stall speed-esque 2% in Q1 to sub stall speed 1.5% in the Q1 preliminary print, today's first revision was expected to be a solid bounce to the horrible preliminary economic data, with whisper numbers heard as high as 2.0% on the back of the recent plunge in the deficit (driven purely by a collapse in Chinese exports and a brief drop in crude prices in June, long since retraced).
Instead the number came precisely in line with the consensus estimate of a 1.7% annualized growth, with the all important Personal Consumption Expenditures adding a modestly higher 1.20% (was 1.05% last). (Read More)
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary