August 16th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 08-16-2012
Markets today have produced the craziest charts today I have ever seen. The only explanation is that the panic prone cash crowd is out of the market and the HFT algo computers doesn't care about charts. The high point of the day for the SP500 was at 1117 beating the 1415 on May 1st this year. We will probably see the 500 ease on up tomorrow to 1422 made on April 2nd this year as that will make a double top if anyone cares. The algo computers don't that's for sure. These mindless machines continue to push the averages up today to really unrealistic highs. Analysts, like myself, are wondering when the crash is going to happen as this run is totally surrealistic and unsustainable. I know that the only position I will have is to be short.
If you are still in the market tomorrow, it may be the last day to gather your belongings and get the hell out of Dodge, the 'hopium' high isn't going to last.
Follow up:Common sense tells me that down is more practical than up at this juncture. There are so many possibilities or consequences that could effect the markets down, far more than ones that could drive the markets up. For instance, if Israel makes a move against Syria (or Iran) tomorrow night or anytime over the weekend, Monday will be a blood bath.
The RRR** was not in the best interest of the trader this today being very narrow and without a fall back if you 'guess' incorrectly. Until we break out of this fixed market all bets are off. I though the markets would melt down by the close – silly me, I forgot about the low volume market movers and how they like to melt markets up.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
The DOW at the closing is at 13250 up 85 or 0.33%.
The 500 is at 1415 up 10 or 0.71%.
The $RUT is at 813.00 up 8.75 or 1.09%.
SPY is at 141.97 up 1.01 or 0.72%.
The trend is up and the current bias is negative at the close on light volume.
WTI oil is at 95.16 trading between 95.70 and 94.15 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude is at 116.90 trading between 117.05 and 115.50 and the bias is negative.
Gold is neutral today at 1614.35 trading between 1618.85 and 1600.83 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.38 up from 3.36 earlier.
Earlier the USD rose from 82.66 to 82.94 and then falling to 82.37 starting after the 8:30 reporting of morning financial's. The USD is currently at 82.46 and the bias is positive.
All those who were patiently waiting for the S&P futures to close at new 2012 highs as the catalyst for Bernanke to announce QE3, can now exhale (if we end here): with S&P 500 2012 year-end earnings estimates the lowest they have been all year; with corporate revenues now negative quarter-over-quarter; and with US economic output sliding and GDP back under 2%; coupled with another step backward in housing; it was only logical that the S&P would close at fresh 2012 highs.
And now, it is time for the NEW QE, LTRO 3 and more RRR and Interest Rate cuts from China and all shall be well.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary