August 15th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 08-15-2012
The afternoon was generally the same as the morning session – dreadfully boring to say the least. Volume was anemic during the afternoon hours and low at the opening. The total swing for the SP500 was 6 points, 54 points for the DOW, 9 for the Russell 2000 and one point for SPY. After the session closed the averages were mixed, but flat. There was a brief moment at the close where the bears had some moderate red volume and then the bulls joined in with some green volume of their own, essentially ending in a zero sum game. Tomorrow has to be more interesting than today. Will Draghi please stand up and break wind at the microphone?
The RRR** was too narrow for trading today, risk factor is way too high and profit margin very slim. Swing short trading is neutral today.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13164 down 7.36 or -0.06%.
The 500 is at 1405.53 up 1.60 or 0.11%.
The $RUT is at 804.26 up 7.38 or 0.93%.
SPY is at 140.98 up 0.21 or 0.15%.
The trend is neutral and the current bias is neutral.
WTI oil is at 94.25 trading between 92.68 and 94.40 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude is at 116.45 trading between 113.49 and 116.55 and the bias is positive.
Gold is up today at 1604.02 trading between 1589 and 1606.48 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.35 down from 3.37 earlier.
Earlier the USD rose from 82.50 to 82.84 and is currently at 82.72.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
An attack on Iran Friday night would coincide with the darkest night of the month with no moon. After all the markets close and wouldn't open for several days would certainly catch more than a few investors with their pants around their ankles. Oil futures are already going up and anyone of the oil ETF's listed here would be a good bet providing the daily volumes are up. A preemptive assault on Iran's nuclear sites probably won't happen before the election as Obama would probably not fair favorably with the electorate. Just saying. . . .
Paint is drying, so what is the best way to break the monotony? Why with renewed Iran war speculation of course. Sure enough, here comes Saudi Arabia to the rescue. From Reuters: "Saudi Arabia has ordered its citizens to leave Lebanon “immediately”, the state news agency reported in an SMS alert on Wednesday. “The Saudi Arabian embassy in Lebanon calls all Saudi citizens to leave Lebanon immediately,” the alert said, without elaborating." Making an imminent Iran attack far less likely, however, is an article in Bloomberg titled "Israel Plans Iran Strike; Citizens Say Government Serious." Of course anyone expecting Israel to launch a strike with every paper in the world blasting the above title as a headline may as well buy some Las Vegas 10,000 square foot haciendas because housing has "bottomed." For now however Brent is leaning on the side of caution, and is back to all time highs in EUR terms.
After the bell, Cisco posted fourth-quarter net income of 47 cents an adjusted share on revenue of $11.7 billion, while analysts were looking for 45 cents on sales of $11.6 billion. The company also raised its quarterly dividend to 14 cents from 8 cents, and the shares are higher by 2% in after-hours trading.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary