Today's Session A Recipe For Another Sharp Reversal

August 6th, 2012
in Gary's blogging

Closing Market Commentary For 08-06-2012

At 3pm the 500 futures were down to 1395 while the SP500 was reporting 1399 sort of a disconnect that I couldn't help notice and closed at 1390. The past 2 weeks have been strange first moving up explosively on BS from ECB's Draghi then continued up on more hot air. Today was a bust at this point in time as we look for some action. If you remember last week's Monday was a bust until 3:20 when the markets took a decidedly negative turn to the south. I was looking / hoping to see the same pattern today so I might be able to sneak in a scalp. 3:30 rolled by and more nothing. Talk about a tight and narrow trading band; volume was so low I had to check and see if the markets were still open. A recipe for another sharp reversal in the making.

Follow up:

3:45 came and went and the market still didn't do anything. Wait, 3:46 and some red appeared, maybe, maybe! By 3:37 the red volume had reached the high volume mark of the day. 3:48 still red but 'mygod' it was slow moving. Crap, the 'BTFD dippers' moved in at 3:40 and nipped that potential scalp in the bud. By 3:55 it was obvious that we will have to give it up for the day and no profits. Wait, at 3:58 the downtrend picked up speed but the volume was low making any potential trades iffy at best. Today I won't snatch the gold ring. Slooooow was the byword for this session as it dragged on and on finally closing near the opening numbers.

The DOW at 4:00 is at 13117 up 21.34 or 0.16%.

The 500 is at 1394 up 3.24 or 0.23%.

The $RUT is at 794.34 up 5.86 or 0.74%.

SPY is at 139.66 up 0.30 or 0.22%.

The trend is up and the current bias is negative.


WTI oil is at 92.12 trading between 92.36 and 90.63 and the bias is neutral at the close.

Brent crude is at 109.61 trading between 109.76 and 107.91 and the bias is neutral.

Gold is up today at 1610 trading between 1602 and 1615 with a neutral bias.

Dr. Copper is at 3.38 up from 3.35 earlier.

Earlier the USD tumbled from 83.60 on 8-2 to 82.33 today and has recovered to 82.30 with a positive bias.

The 500 at the close.

The DOW at the close.

Even Dailyfx thought the day was boring.


Hmmm...I can't find any caricatures of Bernanke and Draghi slinging drugs (allegory for stimulus). Where are all the biz comic illustrators? “

The financial calendar is weak for tomorrow with only the USD Consumer Credit (JUN) at 3 pm being of importance. Don't get me wrong as there is a lot going on, but they are rated low in importance. In other parts of the world we have the GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUL), AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (AUG 7), CHF Consumer Price Index and GBP Industrial Production to name a few. I don't believe any of these will be a market mover.

So very true!

-"We must not look to government to solve our problems. Government is the problem"

-- Ronald Reagan

** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio

O.K., I am out of here – hate being teased.

To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:

Written by Gary

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