Danger Ahead-Today Is Not The Day To Speculate

July 10th, 2012
in Gary's blogging

Opening Market Commentary For 07-10-2012

The markets opened up as the premarket suggested it would. AA came in last night as expected, but positive action in the after-market slowed to a neutral fashion. This morning was another matter as AA fell from 8.88 to 8.61 in a matter of minutes under heavy volume. The other world news isn't very pretty either as the largely irrelevant European Finance Meeting yesterday came up with nothing but loose meaningless words usually regarded as 'Hopium'.

The real news this morning, according to Zerohedge, will be out of Karlruhe, where the German Constitutional Court - which holds the fate of the European bailout mechanism -  has already said there will be no final decision on the constitutionality issue. The question now is whether the Court will issue a temporary injunction, which however, the court itself admits "will be interpreted by the foreign press as ‘euro-rescue is halted." Speculation will be a dangerous proposition this morning.

Follow up:

Other news is that small business confidence this morning plunges the most in two years. Although rated low in financial interest terms this news is just one more disappointing data point in a series that has beleaguer the US in recent months.

June 2012 Small Business: Index Drop Nearly Wipes Out Gains this Year

By 10 am the markets decided they have had enough and started to retreat from the early gains. Although the major indexes were still in the green, the sellers were were out in groves in moderation. It could mean a down day is in progress but the news from Europe later will most certainly drive the markets one way or another.

The DOW at 10:15 is at 12763 up 27.25 or 0.22%.

The 500 is at 1354 up 1.74 or 0.13%.

The $RUT is at 805.64 up 0.89 or 0.11%.

SPY is at 135.51 up 0.20 or 0.16%.

The trend is up and the current bias is down.


WTI oil is at 85.04 trading between 85.96 and 84.65 and the bias is negative.

Brent crude is at 98.88 trading between 100.32 and 98.20 and the bias is negative.

Gold is down today at 1594, trading between 1582 and 1600 with a positive bias.

Dr. Copper is at 3.41 down from 3.44 earlier.


  • China’s Import Growth Misses Estimates For June (Bloomberg)

  • Draghi pledges further action if needed (FT)

  • Top Fed officials set table for more easing (Reuters)

  • Europe Automakers Brace for No Recovery From Crisis (Bloomberg)

  • EU talks up Spanish banks package, markets skeptical (Reuters)

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Written by Gary


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