Cloudy Outlook For US Markets As Poor Numbers Come In

June 21st, 2012
in Gary's blogging

Opening Market Commentary For 06-21-2012

Yesterday's low volume was repeated in today's opening with US markets showing a slight movement down as the major indexes remained fixed at their 100 day MA resistance. Moving above this demarcation and closing above will be a major bullish action. But many analyst, including myself, do not believe there is enough bulls out there to pull the sled across the divide and keep it there. The volume was red and trading was in a tight narrow range waiting for the 10 am financial reports.

At 10 am the financial reports for Existing Home Sales for May DECLINED 1.5% TO 4.55M expecting 4.57 M (prior was 4.62 M).

The US House Price Index (MoM) (April) INCREASES 0.8% % while expecting 0.4% (prior was 1.8%).

The US Leading Indicators ROSE 0.3% expecting 0.1% (prior was -0.1).

The US Philadelphia Fed for June came in LOWER at -16.6 very disappointing while expecting 0.00 (prior was -5.8).

US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (May) DROPPING -1.5% to 4.55M % expecting -1.1% (prior was 3.4%).

Follow up:

The markets reaction was muted melting down in slow motion. I have mentioned before that any market movements will be slow deliberate and measured baring any 'Black Swan' event of course. The red volume was low to moderate.

WTI oil went down to 80.11 and Brent went down to 91.56.

Gold went down to 1584 and Dr. Copper reported 3.32.

The DOW is at 12799 down 25.62 or -0.20%.

The 500 is at 1349 down 6.21 or -0.46%.

$RUT is at 777.54 down 6.51 or -0.83%.

SPY is at 134.96 down 0.53 or -0.38%.

The trend is neutral and the current bias is down.

One other thing to report is that the PMI in China dropped from 48.4 to 48.1. Manufacturers there reported the sharpest declined in export orders in three years and is worth noting as the Global Economy appears to be deteriorating faster than previously believed.


Philly Fed Craters

One word to explain the Philly Fed which just printed at -16.6, or the weakest since August 2011, on expectations of an unchanged print: abysmal. Basically every subcomponent of the index was negative except for number of employees, although luckily we already know that US jobs (even part-time ones) are collapsing too. In short: if this horrendous print does not boost stocks higher, nothing can.

To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:

Written by Gary



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