June 12th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 09-12-2012
Markets opened up as noted earlier, but quickly noted weakness with red volume, then green volume, then red. The first 10 minute volume stayed red and moderate with equities displaying a lot of weakness as the bulls can't pull off an upset. By 10 the markets were in a falling of sorts as the bull and bears duke it out. The blood was red volume and diminishing.
Yesterday's decisive decline was a clear warning that the buying sentiment had shifted to selling. The news regarding bailouts and large doses of 'hopium' from the EZ news machines will not have the desired effect anymore while shorting will dominate. This obvious diminishing return on news will also apply to any QE3 should the FED be foolish enough to attempt it. I wouldn't even bet on the day's outcome for various reasons. Follow up:
June is a SPY dividend month, this Friday, and could very well bolster the markets and keep them from falling too far this week. That makes a decision making process difficult for anyone decided on shorting earlier. It should offer additional buying opportunities of short ETF's later in the week should the markets remain up. I would remain cautious however.
There is a feeling among some bearish analysts that we are witnessing the equities top for the year. On that feeling I am not so sure as Mr. Market loves to throw in curve balls and catch snoozer's off guard. Personally, I will wait for the November rallies for any confirmation because a lot is going to happen between now and then.
You have the National elections in November possibly bolstering depressed markets, possible nasty departures from the EZ, possible bankruptcy of French banks, China starting a financial comeback, US employment figures improving and a host of other bullish and bearish events coming to fruition. I would continue to hold a conservative stance and keep a wad of cash ready while these actions play themselves out. My stance presently is a bearish one and until I can see the World finances take a 'real' turn for the good I will continue to be negative to any market approach.
A good morning read.
The Rally That Wasn't by Bret Jensen
“The much anticipated Spanish bank bailout package fell flat in Monday's trading. Although I expected any uptick to be short-lived, the speed of the rally fading surprised me. If you left to fetch your morning coffee after the opening bell, you basically missed it (See Chart). When the market cannot even get one good day (or hour) of rally to the latest bailout package, it marks a dangerous new phase in the market in my opinion.”
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Written by Gary