May 29th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
After Market Closing Comments:
The mini-rally on Wall Street heated up in the last 30 minutes before the bell. Materials, technology, consumer discretionary, energy and industrial shares leading the way. The broader market averages posted bigger gains on a percent basis. I do expect the market to back off tomorrow before resuming the short term trend up to 1340 for the 500. The markets did have a burst of selling activity rated heavy at the close stopping further gains in the aftermarket dead it is tracks.
The DOW is at 12580 up 125.86 or 1.01%, the 500 is at 1332 up 14.60 or 1.11%, the $RUT is at 777.16 up 10.75 or 1.40% and SPY is at 133.91 up 1.81 or 1.37%. The trend is up and the current bias is up. Follow up:
Gold is up to 1557 with a positive bias. WTI oil is at 90.82 being as low as 90.25 this morning. Brent crude was in the high 106.90 and is currently trading in the 106.25 area. The USD rose to 82.70 highest since 8-2010 and settled in at 82.46. The EURO fell to 1,2460 and recovered to 1,2503 the lowest point since August 22, 2010.
The markets in general fell to their lowest point following this news.
Stocks remain solidly in the green Tuesday but are well off their highs after ratings firm Egan-Jones lowered Spain to B from BB-. The firm’s outlook on Spain remains ‘negative’, and the euro has fallen below $1.25.
“The Pew Research Centre has released a fascinating bit of research today which includes the chart below of European stereotypes. It seems that all of Europe see Germany as the hardest working nation, apart from Greece, which believes it is.”
The public is very worried about joblessness, inflation and public debt, and those fears are fueling much of this uncertainty and negativity. Europeans largely oppose further fiscal austerity to deal with the crisis. They are divided on bailing out indebted nations. They oppose Brussels’ impending oversight of national budgets. At the same time, Europeans who now use the euro have no desire to abandon it and return to their former currency. And anti-German sentiment is largely contained to Greece, at least for the moment.
The SPY at the close. Tells an interesting story in that it corrected sideways from the bottom Bollinger band, rose back up above its 100 day MA and touched its 100 day MA today and retreated closing up. Will it challenge its 50 day tomorrow and back off that resistance? There is a lot of indecisiveness going on making it it difficult for traders.
The 500 at the close.
The $RUT at the close.
The DOW at the close.
The Indexes at the close.
After Market Opening Comments:
First 10 minute volume was moderately heavy and red falling off morning highs just a tad, struggling to keep what it has gained. Absent of any negative news from the Eurozone I can see the 500 rising to the 1340 area over the next few days. The trading range so far this morning has remained in a very narrow range as the bears and bulls duke it out. The 20 minute volume was green and also moderately heavy pushing markets higher and past early morning highs.
It is possible the markets will fall to midlevel prices on Friday and then finish up the afternoon elevated. The short and long ETF's risk-reward ratio is low making any trading risky in light of what news there is and what is expected. None of it good as the battle goes on with the bulls gradually edging out the bears in a narrow trading zone.
USD Consumer Confidence (MAY) expected 69.6 from 69.2 in April reported a big miss at 64.9 and the USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (MAY) reports in at 10:30. Volume is currently mixed and heavy.
At 10 am the DOW is at 12551 up 95.00 or 0.77%, the 500 is at 1327 up 9.76 or 0.74%, the $RUT is at 772 up 5.82 or 0.78% and SPY is at 133.34 up 1.24 or 0.98%. The trend is up and the current bias is up.
Gold is down to 1579 with a positive bias. WTI oil is at 91.57 being as low as 90.90 this morning. Brent crude has been trading in the 107's all morning.
Premarket is up evidently because of 'not so good' US financial news. Won't last, best to sit on the sidelines until the fallout settles. The SP500 is at 1325 off 1328 earlier, the DOW is up 82.00 down from 107 and the NASDAQ is up 17.00
U.S. MARCH S&P/CS 20 CITY (MOM) SA FELL TO 0.09% VS. 0.2% PREDICTED, PREVIOUSLY 0.15%.
U.S. MARCH S&P/CS COMPOSITE-20 (YOY) FALLS 2.57% VS. 2.6% DECREASE PROJECTED, PREVIOUS DECLINE WAS REVISED TO 3.54% FROM 3.49%.
U.S. MARCH S&P/CASE-SHILLER US HPI (YOY) FALLS 1.92% VS. 3.05% DROP ANTICIPATED, PREVIOUS DECREASE WAS REVISED TO 3.9% FROM 4.03%
U.S. MARCH S&P/CASE-SHILLER US HPI PRINTS LOWER AT 123.33, PREVIOUS READING WAS REVISED TO 125.87 FROM 125.67.
U.S. MARCH S&P/ CASESHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX WAS LOWER AT 134.1 VS. 134.4, PREVIOUSLY REVISED DOWN TO 134.14 FROM 134.2.
April Chicago Midwest Mfg. Index: +2.4% M/M. +12.0% Y/Y. Regional auto sector production rose 7.6%.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. home prices were unchanged in March, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index. The three-month rolling index includes transactions that took place from January to March. Over the past 12 months, prices have fallen 2.6% as... Full Story
“Futures are well bid overnight even though following a modest short covering squeeze of the new record number of EUR shorts, the primary driver of risk, the EURUSD is now back to mere pips above its 2010 lows.
It is somewhat confusing why equities are so jubilant about what can only be more imminent bailouts, following statements by the ECB's Nowotny who made it clear that the ECB is not discussing the renewal of bond purchases and that the central bank provides "liquidity not solvency."
Adding to the confusion was a release in Chinese daily Xinhua which said that China has no intention of introducing large scale stimulus.”
To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:
Written by Gary