May 18th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
After market Commentary:
Another interesting day behind us and wondering what the European’s are going to do over the weekend. Personally, I wished I had shorted several days ago, but the climate still isn't what I like to see and caution is warranted. The Spanish banks may declare that a run has indeed happened and then we will see the Monday's markets in the dump for sure.
Gold ended up at 1590, WTI oil ended up at 91.50and the USD ended up down at 81.30.
Also likely to be cold wet rag on the markets, is the 'Big 8' summit meeting in camp David will most likely be a do-nothing meeting and spout a lot of hot air about how great things are going to be shortly. Believe me when I tell you these people are the pinnacle of “Let's see if we can talk our way out of this mess.” They has already designed the camel, what are they going to do next? Add a third hump? This not being able to accomplish much rhetoric will not help the markets advance either, but together it may be the bad news we don't want to hear come Monday morning.
There was a lot of damage done in the past week. The market is now in a panic modality, but it was also at an oversold levels yesterday. Unless the European crisis mushroom's into a bigger problem, this down move should find a bottom very soon.
Oversold levels chart: Take a look at the chart below. The 9 C-RSI was at -33.3 yesterday and anything below -30 is in oversold territory.
Facebook at the close. (FB) For those that were privileged enough to get early at 41.95, I guess you were not hurt too badly closing at xxxxxxx a 10%+ drop.
The 500 at the close.
The $RUT at the close.
The DOW at the close.
The Indexes at the close.
Noon Market Commentary:
Just about the European markets were closing, the US market decided to melt down a bit, but have since recovered – if that is what it is called. Volume today overall has been low to moderate as investors mull over recent events in the Eurozone. The Spanish banks are desperately trying to quell any notion of a bank run as did happen Greece. If there is a run, there isn't enough money to cover it and all hell will break loose by Monday. The EZ is truly hanging on by a thread.
The DOW is at 12431 down 10.97 or -0.09%, the 500 is at 1304 down 0.71 or -0.04%, the $RUT is at 752.44 down 1.82 or -0.24% and below its 200 day MA. SPY is at 130.72 down 0.14 or -0.08%. The trend is down and the current bias is down.
WTI oil is at 91.92, Dr. Copper is at 3.47, gold is at 1590 and the USD has slipped a bit to 81.50. The ECRI's weekly index, looking 6 months ahead has slipped from last week's -0.1 to -0.4 today.
After Market Opening Commentary:
The markets immediately made a nose dive from the early premarket highs to yesterday's close. By 10 am the markets were trending up slightly, but remained near yesterday's closing numbers. Volume is mostly red but falling off leaving the markets in a sideways to flat bias. I suspect the markets will close down to flat today as there is no US financial news that can be called important.
The so called 'safe havens' are trending up with gold at 1590 having just been down in the 1530's. TLT is also doing well although sightly off its high yesterday at 124.28 resting at 123.44. The USD rose to 81.92 earlier the melting down to 81.51. The prognosis is that it will rise higher with the US markets declining today. What happens next week is another story.
The Euro-zone structural vulnerabilities will remain a very important short-term focus, especially as confidence in the banking sector has deteriorated sharply. Any sustained run on the banks or substantial capital outflows would substantially increase the risk of a destabilising break-up in the Euro-zone as a whole. In this appetite, risk appetite is likely to remain generally vulnerable in the short-term.
The DOW is at 12442 down 1.10 or -0.005% (200 day MA is 12199), the 500 is at 1306 up 1.24 or 0.10% (200 day MA is 1278), the $RUT is at 753.29 down 0.98 or -0.13% (200 day MA is 753.01) and SPY is at 131.06 up 0.22 or 0.16% (200 day MA is 127.99). The trend is down and the current bias is down.
At the open: Dow +0.27% to 12476. S&P +0.35% to 1309. Nasdaq +0.31% to 2822.
Treasurys: 30-year -0.4%. 10-yr -0.17%. 5-yr -0.1%.
Commodities: Crude -0.58% to $92.03. Gold +0.97% to $1590.25.
Currencies: Euro +0.13% vs. dollar. Yen +0.07%. Pound -0.18%.
Concerns that Europe's debt crisis could drag down parts of the continent's banking system rattled most global markets Friday are still very much on the minds of the investors.
Premarkets are up slightly, but that isn't going to last when the market opens.
8:00 AM On the hour: S&P +0.48%. 10-yr -0.1%. Euro +0.12% vs. dollar. Crude +0.13% to $92.68. Gold +0.96% to $1589.95
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Written by Gary
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