May 10th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
After Market Closing Remarks:
Joel Kruger, at Dailyfx said, “Any rallies in risk correlated assets over the coming sessions should be aggressively sold given the latest waves of uncertainty splashing to shore.“ Good advise!
Percentage wise the $RUT led the pack up 2.83 +0.86 closing at 791.75. The SP500 followed the Russell 2000 being up 2.21 +0.25 closing at 1357.99. The DOW closed up 19.98 +0.16 closing at 12855.04. Heavy profit taking at the close, but the aftermarket 'dippers' moved it back up and by 4:45 the bears moved in and seriously moved it to the days lows. The SP500 fell to 1351 (6.65 points) in about 5 seconds, some fund must have unloaded and we will see if that is a precursor to tomorrow's opening.
Today was a wait-n-see one and probably we will see another start tomorrow with the numbers in the elevated range. As with any market that is doubt, keep your feet dry and wait for a signal. Gold ended up at 1594, WTI Oil ended up at 96.90 and Brent slid one point to 112.46. The USD is doing well closing at 80.31 very near its high for the day. Follow up:
The 500 at the close. No signals here.
The $RUT at the close. No signals here except that the candle may be a spinning top - maybe!
The DOW at the close. No signals here either - wait for tomorrow.
The Indexes at the close.
Addendum: At 5:10 EST the SP500 dipped as low as 1346 – something is going on – hope you are prepared for the worst. I hate it when I find out about these thing AFTER the fact. I have been out for some time now, I hope you headed my warnings.
@5:25 Appears that JPM is giving a press conference and some don't like what they hear and that caused the fall in the SP500 futures.
“$JPM: It could EASILY get worse this quarter, also a lot of volatility next quarter.”
"RT @Makro_Trader: I know that other firms loves when the big guy marks stuff down overnight"
"Dimon on CIO activities: JPM has suffered a $2B loss in the synthetic credit portfolio. "The strategy was flawed ... There were many errors, sloppiness, and bad judgment ... risk managers are fully engaged in helping to monitor the current portfolio." He goes on to say volatility could remain high over coming quarters and could cost the bank another $1B."
"More Dimon (JPM): He reiterates the loss "could easily get worse this quarter." The reason for a "fortress" balance sheet is to handle situations like this. He says the bank's Basel III ratio will be amended down to 8.2% from 8.4% and JPM will still earn $4B in Q2. Shares -5.3%"
Noon Market Commentary:
Volume has been consistent since the opening bell being largely low to medium. The bears outnumber the bulls slightly giving the market a bearish bias. The past 3 sessions the market has opened low and climbed higher during the day. Today the opposite is true in that the markets opened higher and have consistently fallen at the midday mark along with the volume.
The DOL, 500 and the $RUT have remained up but below their morning highs. Not a lot can be said at this point as in any trend it has to be confirmed and maybe tomorrow will help set a positive trend the bulls have been wishing for. Myself, I am not so sure the down trend will reverse itself at this point. Most indexes are in the center point of going one way or another. They are neither near or far from resistances and supports or major Moving Day Averages.
After Market Opening Commentary And Analysis:
Market opened higher with low to moderate green volume. What strength there is to the adage mentioned below is hanging by a thread. The bears rushed in and for a moment there was some profit taking, but the bulls quickly resolved that issue. By 10 am the markets are moving sideways and a negative bias.
The DOW reached a high of 12924 and is currently at 12918 +84.31 or +0.63%, the 500 reached a high of 1365 and is currently at 1364 +9.46 or +0.70% and the $RUT reached a high of 795 and is currently at 794 +5.55 or +0.70%.
After the close last night some analysts commented that the past 3 days had opened lower but closed higher meaning the 4th. day, today, would open higher. I am not sure just where this old adage came from, but appears to be true. The SP500 was at 1648 earlier and moved up to 1362. The 500 closed yesterday at 1354.
Gold is up to 1592, WTI oil is up at 97.24 and Brent is up 113.38. The news coming in from the Eurozone is still negative and one day up is not going to make a market, stay tuned. The trend is down the bias is up for the day.
“NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures retained Thursday gains after the government said jobless claims last week fell by 1,000 to 367,000, a one-month low. The four-week moving average declined to 379,000 from 384,250 the prior week.
“If the most recent week’s data is repeated throughout May, or dare we say improves a bit more, we can expect the pace of job creation to accelerate back to more ‘normal’ levels of between 150,000 to 200,000,” emailed Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG LLC.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJM2 +0.44% rose 48 points to 12,843. S&P 500 Index futures SPM2 +0.69% gained 9.5 points to 1,360.5, while Nasdaq 100 futures NDM2 +0.37% advanced 12.5 points to 2,631.75.
Separately, the Commerce Department reported the U.S. trade deficit widened 14% in March to $51.8 billion.
Futures continue to take their cue from the euro’s moves, said Fawad Razaqzada, market strategist at GFT Markets.”
To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:
Written by Gary