Live Market Commentary For 05-04-2012

May 4th, 2012
in Gary's blogging

End Of Day Comments:

The markets fell to support levels of many stocks and indexes today and remained below them at the close. At 3:45 the bulls made a feeble attempt to move the market back up a little, but the bears won this end of day scrimmage. The DOW dropped below its support at 13032 and eased back above to 13037. The 500 dropped 6 points below its support at ~1374 and spent most of the afternoon around 1370's, but ended below what is now its resistance closing at 1369.

The $RUT fell 15 points below it close yesterday but recovered a bit closing at 791.90. WTI oil is down to 98.56, Brent is down to 113 and gold is in the 1643 area. The USD is doing better rising to 79.58.

Today's NFP news was discouraging, but the news over the weekend could be damaging further hopes of a continued market rise.

Follow up:


There's a busy weekend ahead, with France holding its presidential election on Sunday, and Greeks casting their votes for a new government the same day. Both countries could elect anti-austerity leaders, which would rub the EU, ECB and IMF up the wrong way.

Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister, warned this afternoon that if Greece elects a government that doesn't respect its cost-cutting commitments then it will have to "bear the consequences".

The risk is that the country could be left without a government at all if no clear majority emerges, jeopardising its bailout by failing to stick to the difficult fiscal targets demanded of it.”


European markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is down 1.99% while London's FTSE 100 is off 1.93% and France's CAC 40 is lower by 1.90%.”

RT @ZH_Crown: When do we have a press conference holding speculators accountable for WTI < $100 ?”

There won't be an after hours comments as it conflicts with meeting with several Econintersect customers.

Markets At Noon:

Strange market decline and difficult to figure out. Read at Zerohedge,

The comedy continues: the April "Not in labor force" seasonally adjusted print: 88,419,000. And yet, the maximum reading permitted by St Louis Fed Not in Labor Force (LNS15000000) graph: 88,000,000. The data has now officially dropped off the chart. No further commentary necessary.”


Just saw this: “05/03/12 Starting November 6, putting a bag in the overhead bin will soon cost some Spirit Airlines passengers $100.” Yeah, I bet that will go over well, next there will be a bathroom charge and you will have to pay extra to sit down. Oh yes, seat belts will only be $25.00.

A nice and easy decline is NOT typical of a market loosing so much and is in suspect. Whatever you do don't be a 'dipper' this time around. Wait til Monday and the dust clears.

The DOW is down 150.00 or -1.13%, the 500 is down 19.57 or -1.40% and the $RUT is down 13.08 or -1.62%. The 500 has gone below its support and the DOW backed off penetrating its support.

Midmorning Market Comments:

Very interesting market reaction this morning, not at all what I am used too. Yes, the markets slide down, but in a very orderly fashion. No panic, volume was moderate and has started to fall off like a 'normal' day.

The DOW has fallen down to 13065 and has recovered a bit to 13081 or off 125 -0.95%. The 500 is down 16.00 or -1.16 at 1375. The 500 stopped dead at it support (1374) and has retraced just a bit to 1375. The $RUT is in between its major resistance at 830 and its support at ~786. The $RUT has paused for the moment at 794, off 12.61 -1.51%.

The bias at 11 am is neutral and the trend is down.

WTI oil is at 99.24, Brent is at 112.16, gold has fallen to 1633 and the USD is at 79.37, up a few cents.

Market Opening Comments:

Markets opened down as expected, WTI oil dipped to 100, gold at 1639 and the 500 at 1380. The DOW is down to 13123, SSO is down to 56.11, SPY down to 138.25 and QQQ down to 65.56.


At the open: Dow -0.45% to 13147. S&P -0.58% to 1383. Nasdaq -0.93% to 2996.
Treasurys: 30-year -0.32%. 10-yr -0.52%. 5-yr -1.25%.
Commodities: Crude -2.42% to $100.06. Gold +0.13% to $1636.90.
Currencies: Euro -0.12% vs. dollar. Yen -0.05%. Pound -0.04%.

Premarket Commentary:

April change in Non Farm Payrolls fell to 115k vs. 160k predicted, previously revised to 154k from 120k.

The markets were strangely quiet before the NFP numbers were released. After was a different story as the markets plunged sharply and then rose back up to the original premarket levels. I think we saw a mini-flash from the HFT, no other way to explain it.

I think we would normally see some negative impact here, but this market is anything but normal. The markets are exactly where they were prior to the announcement with a negative bias.


U.S. April average hourly earning YoY all employees rose 1.8% vs. 2.0% gain projected, previous increase was revised to 2.0% from 2.1%.

U.S. April weekly hours all employees comes in at 34.5 in line with consensus forecast, previously 34.5.

U.S. April underemployment rate (u6) was unchanged 14.5% vs. 14.5% prior.

U.S. April jobless rate decreases to 8.1% from March's 8.2% as workers leave labor force.


U.S. Dollar Falls To 3-day Low Of 79.85 Against Yen After Jobs Data

AP Top Financial News At 8:34 a.m. EDT

US hiring slows sharply with just 115K jobs added Markets on edge ahead of US jobs data, elections Duke Energy earnings fall on construction costs Oil below $102 as traders eye key US jobs data Air France-KLM posts $483 million loss for Q1

AP Top Extended Financial Headlines At 8:34 a.m. EDT

US hiring slowed in April to just 115,000 jobs, unemployment rate dropped to 8.1 percent Markets on edge ahead of US jobs data, elections in Greece and France Duke Energy earnings fall 42 percent on cost overruns at Indiana coal plant Oil falls below $102 in Asia as traders await key US jobs report Air France-KLM posts $483 million loss for Q1 driven by high fuel costs, global slowdown


The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April, missing estimates for a gain of 170,000. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% from 8.2%. It was expected to remain unchanged. The March gain was also revised up to 259,000 from 240,000.”


Who Leaked the NFP This Time?

Presented with little comment except to note that in the minute or so before the actual sanctioned release from the dark little room at the BLS, S&P 500 e-mini futures slumped by 7 pts, surged and then slumped again by 7pts - double the entire overnight range in those 30-45 seconds. So after all the efforts to maintain the integrity of the NFP release, it seemed someone knew something early...

To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:

Written by Gary

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