Live Market Commentary For 04-26-2012

April 26th, 2012
in Gary's blogging

Closing Market Comments:

A very interesting day with some interesting numbers. The SP500 closed above its 50 day MA for the second day in a row as did the DOW and SPY. The $RUT closed above its 50 day MA today. The resistances were also pierced and have become supports which evidently were not very strong as first thought. The problem with all of this is the volume. While not exactly anemic, it was only moderate during the climb and a heavy sell-off at the end which leaves me with scratching my head.

Follow up:

This isn't making much sense.It has to be those thinking there is going to be more QE and I guess that is possible, but it won't happen until June, so what is pushing the markets higher or more likely why? I can't answer that question just now but I bet we have a correction soon.

The 500 at the close.

The $RUT at the close.

The DOW at the close.

The Indexes at the close.


Midday Comments:

Markets have been going sideways since 11:30 with falling volume. There is appears to be positive bias to the markets, but all in all it is very quiet. The DOW is up 56 points, the 500 is up 2.24 and $RUT is up 3.40. I am watching $RUT to start falling this afternoon leading up to a down day, at least a flat one.

Market open Commentary:

Comcast internet connection was down again this morning, so a timely report on the opening became impossible. At least once a month I get screwed by Comcast.

By 11 markets had moved up from it opening. The DOW is up 47, the 500 is up 1.86 and against its resistance of 1393 and the Russell 2000 is up 2.95 and 2 points above its resistance at 813. Volume is moderate and churning as the bulls and bears duke it out with no clear winner.

Gold is up to 1657, SLV up to 30.21, SPY is up to 139.31. WTI oil is flat in the mid 104 range and Brent moved up into the low 120's and trending down. The USD traded as low as 78.90 and has since moved up to 78.99.

US Pending home sales were up and that was the cause of the markets melting up. The Kansas City Manufacturing activity (rated low) seemed to be a weakening market factor as the indexes fell slightly.

Also read a telling story at dailyfx and that can't be a good sign.


RT @theanalyst_hk: RT @FTAlphaville: China is being buried alive in copper

Premarket Action:

Futures started out up and flat and by 8:30 the were down slightly. The DOW was down 3 points (three) and the 500 was down 1.30. WTI oil was steady in the 104 range and Brent moved from the 118 to the mid 119 range. Gold has been melting up and currently is at 1653. SSO fell from yesterday's close of 57.00 to 56.56 and SPY fell a point from 139 to 138.

Once the financial reports came out (graphic below) the markets started a slight decline -0.2% which will probably become the trend today with no further challenges to the resistances that lie directly above yesterday's close. The jobless claims moved up 3,000 to 388,000.

The financial news from the Eurozone is not very pretty and will have an effect not only in Europe, but the US markets as well.

US futures slip after unemployment claims data

U.S. stock index futures are falling after disappointing news on unemployment applications and a decline in most major European markets. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits remains near its highest level in three months, the Labor Department says.

Dow Jones industrial average futures are down 0.2 percent at 13,018. Standard & Poor's 500 futures are off 0.3 percent at 1,383. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.2 percent at 2,699. In Europe, most markets are slipping following disappointing results from several major companies.

Germany's DAX is down 0.3 percent. France's CAC-40 is off 0.8 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 index, however, is edging up 0.2 percent. U.S. stocks to watch on Thursday include PepsiCo Inc. and Exxon Mobil, both of which reported sharp drops in first-quarter profit.


Just As Predicted, Initial Claims Miss Huge, Yet Magically Improve

Recall what we said less than an hour ago: "what will most likely happen is a print in the mid to upper 380,000s, while last week's number will be revised to a 390K+ print, allowing the media to once again declare that the number was an improvement week over week.

In other words, SSDD." SSDD it is: last week's 386K number was revised to 389K, meaning the massive miss relative to expectations of 370K last week just got even worse. This is the 10th week in a row of misses to the weaker side and the 16th of the last 18.

And while this week's miss was whopping as usual, with expectations of 375K being soundly missed after the print came at 388K on its way back to 400K, the media can sleep soundly because the absolute lack of BLS propaganda means that the sequential progression is one of, you got it, improvement.

In other words here is what the headlines in the Mainstream Media will be: "Initial claims improve over prior week." In fact here it is from Bloomberg: "U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell 1,000 to 388,000 Last Week." Absolutely brilliant. No propaganda. No data fudging. No manipulation at all. Just endless laughter at the desperation.

To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:

Written by Gary





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