April 23rd, 2012
in Gary's blogging
In a previous article I mentioned that you might think about selling in April instead of may and avoid the rush. Well the good news is that you still have time to lighten up your portfolio, but not much. Don't get greedy, remember, "There are old traders, and there are bold traders. But there are no old, bold traders". The clock is ticking and your time to consolidate is running out.
The news is really depressing today and it doesn't look like it is going to improve anytime soon. Tomorrow, 04-24-2012 the financial reporting is mostly from Switzerland and New Zealand with some reports of medium importance but not likely to move the markets much. The US doesn't have anything to report until Wednesday with Consumer Confidence and new home sales at 10 am on Tuesday. My feeling is not to hold your breath for good news.
Weekly Market Outlook: Beware Of Poor Economic Numbers by Price Headley
“The good news is, the market managed to snap the losing streak at only two weeks, carving out a modest gain last week. The bad news is, that's among the only good news there is.
It's pretty clear at this point the market's direction has changed. Both the 20-day moving average line as well as the 50-day moving average line are now pointed lower. While it's certainly possible - and likely - we'll see bullish days even while the trend is technically bearish, one or two bullish days doesn't snap a bigger losing streak. Only a close above the 20-day line at 1392 would suggest the overall trend had turned bullish again.”
Investors have traded negatively because of this mornings European news and sent the markets tumbling 3% recovering some 1% and melting down again in late afternoon trading on low volume. Traders also reacted negatively to Sarkozy, president of France, facing an up hill battle in run-off election again the Socialist Party contender.
Airlines, commodities, oil and brokerages are all off while the bond market and treasuries are forming a strong upward trend as traders evaluate today's global economy concerns.
“It was a rough Monday for global stocks as concerns over European political uncertainty and another sign of a slowdown in the Chinese economy led the way for a steep sell-off in equities.”
Weekly Market Forecast: Here Comes Spain Edition by Graham Summers
“In other words, the EU collapse is about to enter its next round. Remember, all collapses follow the same pattern:
1) the initial drop
2) the re-test/ attempt to reclaim upwards momentum
3) the roll-over/ REAL fireworks
The most money is made during #3. Right now we’ve finished #1 and are now ending #2. When #3 hits (likely after the French election on May 6th), is when the real fireworks will begin (assuming Spain’s collapse allows things to hold up that long).“
This morning Egypt cut off all natural gas supplies to Israel ratcheting up the Mid-East tensions even higher than they were already. Everywhere you turn the situations, financial and political, are taking a turn for the worst. This can not be a acceptable state of affairs to propel the markets higher.
Get ready for a week of renewed focus on the Fed. No one expects a policy change, but there is plenty of room for disappointment. In the new era of Fed communications there will be plenty to analyze, including the following:
Sorry for the short article mainly because there isn't much favorable to say about the markets being able to survive the onslaught that is about to happen. I am ready, are you?
To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:
Written by Gary