Live Commentary For 04-20-2012

April 20th, 2012
in Gary's blogging

Aftermarket Comments:

The markets closed up, but flat to small gains. The DOW ended up at 13029 and some 20 points above it 50 day MA, the 500 ended up at 1378 and a point below it 50 day MA, $RUT was the biggest gainer ending up at 804.05, +0.64% and a whopping 14 points BELOW its 50 day MA. No resistance or supports were broken leaving everything more or less where it has been sideways for the past 8 sessions.

SPY closed at 137.98, SSO closed at 55.96, gold closed at 1641 while the oils kind of floundered where they have been for several sessions. WTI oil closed at 103 and Brent closed at 118. Another lackluster day with not much happening, be careful of complacency though as it has a way to sneak up on you and bite you in the bum. Here are the charts.

Follow up:

The 500 at the close.

The $RUT at the close.

The DOW at the close.

The Indexes at the close.

For those following my thoughts on going short over the weekend, I dipped my toe in and got some FAZ at 22.19 and it closed today at 22.33. Remember tomorrow is the New Moon, the darkest night of the New Moon phase for those following my 'war' thoughts. This month is probably safe, but the odds go up considerably as each month passes the New Moon phase.

Noon Time Observations:

The markets are melting up slightly with usual afternoon falling volume. Indexes are trading in a narrow range as they did yesterday, but without the heavy volume. The USD started out at 79.68 and has fallen to 79.30.

Not much is happening, but am still investigating the possibilities trading a short later this afternoon as I expect the Monday market to be down. Just how much is the criteria to be justified.


On the hour: Dow +0.84%. 10-yr -0.06%. Euro +0.56% vs. dollar. Crude +1.43% to $104.19. Gold +0.09% to $1642.95.

Europe ends the week nicely higher amidst and ahead of lots of emanations from D.C., where the IMF and G-20 are holding meetings through the weekend. Stoxx 50 +1.2%, Germany +1.2%, France +0.5%, Italy +0.8%, Spain +2.1%, U.K. +0.5%. For the week, Stoxx 50 +1%, Spain -2.8% (off 8% over 2 weeks), France flat, Germany +2.6%.

Opening Market Comments:

Market did gap up for the cash crowd as expected. The DOW opened up at 13008 +50.71, the SP500 opened up at 1380 +4.75 and the $RUT opened up at 805 +7.13. They quickly turned negative in the first few minutes building rising column of red volume. Then just as quickly returned to green as the bears and bulls battle it out in a VERY narrow range in light to moderate volume.

GE is up 2%, SPY is even while BAC is down 1%. TZA is on the most active list down 3%. The first 10 minute volume is green with the market melting up but mostly sideways.

Yesterday's market daily volume was the highest for the last 6 months which made for an interesting and welcome market, but not quite ready for a prime time traders market. Today's premarket was unusually quiet leading up to the opening and the first 10 minute volume although green again turned red as the markets appeared to have finally made up their minds to ease on down. How long will this last, stay tuned.

Today is going to be interesting because the markets are in a negative trend of late, but the expiration of options today generally drives the markets up. Whatever, I do expect the markets to be down on Monday to continue the negative trend typically of this time of year, “Sell in May and go away”.

Premarket Action:

The market futures and I expect a gap up for the cash crowd. The SP500 is up 6.70, the DOW is up 75.00 and the NASDAQ is up 11.25. Although the SP was as high as 1380 this morning it now has a slightly negative bias down to 1378. Since there are no economic reports I suspect the market could continue to remain in this elevated zone only because of option expiration is today.

London is higher after positive news from Germany. The DAX is up +0.91% and the CAC is up +0.31%. The Asian market we up with the exception of the Nikkie which was down -0.28.


London's blue chip index was trading slightly higher on Friday morning after a better-than-expected reading of Germany sentiment. SuperGroup was a heavy faller on the FTSE 250 after warning on profits.

As it stands, the Footsie has gained around 100 points since last Friday's close of 5,652.

The Ifo Business Climate survey for Germany rose from 109.7 to 109.8 in March compared with consensus forecasts of a fall to 109.5. The news sparked a rise in the euro against the dollar with the USD/EUR trading at $1.3173, up 0.27% on the day. Nevertheless, the Ifo admitted that the rise was less pronounced than in previous months showing that "the German economy is losing some of its momentum".

"The euro is continuing to trade in a tight range against the dollar, between 1.30 and 1.32. Even a successful Spanish bond auction and disappointing unemployment and manufacturing data out of the US yesterday failed to cause a significant move in the markets yesterday as investors continue to avoid making a decision on where the single currency is headed next," said analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari.”


McDonald’s unveiled first-quarter earnings of $1.23 a share, matching analysts’ estimates. The world’s biggest burger chain posted sales of $6.55 billion, slightly ahead of the $6.54 billion that the Street expected.

This will be the general story for the earning season and will become more pronounced as Q2 is revealed.


GE profit grows but revenues fall. GE (GE) is yet another company to beat earnings expectations as Q1 EPS jumped 17%, excluding items, to $0.34 even as revenue fell 8% to $35.2B. A 12% decline at GE Capital helped offset a 14% increase at the conglomerate's Industrial segment. Shares were +0.6% premarket. Companies that missed expectations include: SanDisk (SNDK)

Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong +0.1%. China +1.2%. India flat.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +1.0%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +0.8% to $103.10. Gold +0.2% to $1645.00.
Premarket gainers: WOLF
+7%. AMRN +6%. CPST +6%. BPOP +6%. ETFC +5%. ING +4%. ARNA +4%. HON +4%. DB +4%. SLB +4%. MSFT +3%. DANG +3%. HERO +3%. E +3%.
Losers: RVBD
-26%. TPX -13%. SNDK -13%. EXPD -6%. NOK -3%.

Morning Reads:

Double, bubble, toil and trouble

Yesterday’s bond auctions might have gone well enough, but unfortunately other issues are brewing in Europe and moreover they are getting progressively worse. In Italy, as the economy reverses more rapidly than expected, the fiscal dynamics look increasingly problematic.

Read the rest of the article Double, bubble, toil and trouble

Spain’s Problems Continue (Video)

To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:

Written by Gary

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