Live Market Commentary For 04-16-2012

April 16th, 2012
in Gary's blogging

After The Close:

The markets closed mixed with some serious after market selling and heavy volume. The DOW candle remained green while the candles for the 500 and $RUT both remain red and no clear winners.

You can see for yourself the indexes are in the middle of their charts and where they go from here is probably down. The large cap are lagging behind the small caps as the small caps continue to show weakness. However, only the SP500 ended up in the red today with a 0.05 point loss for the day. WTI oil ended elevated at 103.07 and Brent ended down for the day at 118.38. The USD fell to 79.73.

Reading the tea-leaves on the charts for the index's is inconclusive as you can see here.

Follow up:

The 500 at the close with a spinning top and if validated tomorrow it means a change od direction.

The $RUT at the close. The candle for the Russell could also be a spinning top.

The DOW at the close and in the middle.

The Indexes at the close.

Afternoon Report:

Markets tried to muster some bull action on light green volume around 1:30. The $DJI recovered most of it losses climbing to close to its high of the day while the 500 has barely moved trading within a tight zone of 3.5 points and at a minor resistance at 1375. The Russell 2000 has formed a red hammer and looking weak as the small caps seemed to be trending down.

European markets finished higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is up 0.63% while France's CAC 40 is up 0.51% and London's FTSE 100 is up 0.26%. The USD has fallen below the 60 mark to 79.68 and the trend is down. WTI oil is back up at 103.00 after been in the high 102's.

The sea-saw effect today is once again caused by the HFT's and is most evident when the volumes fall to anemic levels. The markets are right in the middle of resistance and support levels formed over the last 5 sessions. I don't expect much to happen today, more after the close.Mid-morning rema

Mid-morning remarks: (Going to be a choppy ride today)

It didn't take long for the markets to continue their fall to below Friday's closing numbers with heavy red volume to accentuate the validity of what is being perceived today as a weak market come to fruition. By 10:45 am the $VIX climbed above 20, the magic line of bull to bear sentiment, to 20.35 and has remained in this elevated zone.

The DOW was the exception remaining in the green having only lost 70 points from the opening. The Russell 2000 was solidly down -4.56 as the 500 was down to1367, 3 points below it close on Friday. WTI oil took a sudden dump to the high 101's and Brent did likewise down to the high 118's. Gold fell to 1646 and the USD fell from 80.34 to 80.08 in a mater of minutes, but remains above the bullish line of 80 cents.

Copper closed on Friday at 3.63 its lowest point since January 2012. Dr. Copper has fallen more this morning to 3.59 on continuing worries about China.


The volume has finally fallen off as the bears won the opening rounds. Some dip buying while the market pauses with a moderate melting up to the Friday closing prices. With volume falling we will probably see the HFT's move the markets up a bit.


. . . . the short term trend and sentiment have taken a turn down. The breadth indicators are not in great shape, and many key groups and stocks have weakened in the near term. Also, my bottom-up approach reveals very few good long set ups and many good shorts.

We don’t know if this will end up being an innocent pullback within an uptrend or a full blown correction.”


US markets have seen their early gains retreat after homebuilder sentiment data showed that six months of rising confidence had come to an end, suggesting that the housing market remains weak despite modest gains.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index fell to 25 from 28. Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market.

Also, the ECB bought no government debt last week, despite the rising pressure on Spain and Italy. Some thought that it may be enough to get the central bank to restart it's bond-buying program, but data out this afternoon shows otherwise. It's now been five weeks since the ECB waded into the bond markets.”

Market Opening Remarks:

Market opened up with the DOW 12850 moving smartly up to 12966 in the first few minutes. The first 10 minute green volume was moderate and then tapered off while the market consolidated and turned red about 9:45.

At the Telegraph they wrote, “Wall Street has opened for the day/week, and stocks have risen after two weeks of decline thanks to better-than-expected retail data out earlier this afternoon. The Dow Jones climbed 0.94pc, the S&P 500 rose 0.65pc and Nasdaq gained 0.49pc.”

Market lost about ¾ of its opening rise as market volumes turned red and moderate. WTI oil rose from its premarket 101.85 to 103.36 by 10 am. Interestingly Brent sharply fell from its premarket high of 120.12 to 119.36. Gold was up nicely to 1657 and fell to 1652.

By 10 am the market was in a full sell mode with relatively high red volumes; “Sell the news, buy the rumor”. The markets appeared to start consolidating near the closing prices on Friday while red volume remained moderate to heavy.

Premarket Action:


Spain's borrowing costs soar above 6pc on Monday, while Germany's fall to a record low, as nervous investors seek safe havens amid growing fears over the state of the Spanish economy. US retail data is now out, showing that sales rose more than expected in March, by 0.8pc. Motor vehicle sales rose 0.9pc after increasing 1.3 percent in February. “


S&P 500 futures move to a session high, +0.6% following the strong retail sales print. Nasdaq 100 +0.6%. Europe adds to gains, Stoxx 50 +1.1%. Laggard Spain goes green as well, +0.4%. “

S&P 500 futures move to a session high, +0.6% following the strong retail sales print. Nasdaq 100 +0.6%. Europe adds to gains, Stoxx 50 +1.1%. Laggard Spain goes green as well, +0.4%.

Asian markets are closed and moderately in the red. Hang Seng closed down at -0.44% and the Nikkei closed down at -1.74%. European markets are up over 1%. Eurozone is expected to be the news for Monday while Spain is the headlines.

New York Manufacturing Index Falls Much More Than Expected

US retail sales rise at healthy 0.8 percent pace

To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:

Written by Gary

live market commentary, realtime market, gary econintersect, current real time market events, live market watch, gold prices, silver prices, oil prices, sp500, sso - ProShares , market correction, brent crudw, Mr market, low volume, spx, dr copper, dow, market breakout, small caps, gdp, corporate earnings, durable goods, SP500 futures,
new normal, spain, eurozone


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