Live Market Comments For 04-12-2012

April 12th, 2012
in Gary's blogging

After The close: Do You Believe In The Tooth Fairy?

The volumes fell to almost nothing and the market rises. How much of this do you believe is real? Then again maybe you believe in Santa Clause and that your tax bill next year is going to be lower.

Unfortunately, I can see the markets melting up further only to close out some gaps, but the trend is definitely down. Just moving above 1390 on the 500 is not out of the question, but it is going to be a difficult slug. I will be totally flabbergasted to see it move higher than the 1417 area.

The DOW closed up at 12986, 181 points or +1.41%. The SP500 closed up at 1387, 18.36 points or +1.38% and leading the way the Russell 2000 closed up at 808.59, 12.00 points or +1.51%. Gold ended up for the day at 1675, SPY at 138 up one point from yesterday. The ETF's, TNA in particular, had a 2 point movement which isn't bad, but a long ways from the moves it is capable of. The risk \ reward still is being elusive and should make traders wary and swing folks really uneasy.

Here is what the charts look like.

Follow up:

 

Every market closed in on their resistance which is about 1390 on the 500, 13116 on the DOW and 812 to 816 on the Russell 2000 depending on how you interpret the tea-leaves. There was some profit taking right at the close and depending on the CPI and Michigan Sentiment reports we may see move melting up. But with this fickle market being orchestrated by the 'Five-Fingered-Financiers' during the midnight shift there is no way to know what Mr. Market has in store for us.

The 500 at the close.

The $RUT at the close.

The DOW at the close.

The Indexes at the close. The airlines had a banner day.

Around 3:30 I saw this at dailyFX.

Everyone is watching 1390 on the SPX. You can hear a pin drop.”

Well I have news for you, 1417 is the number to watch. Way too many charts have gaps on them that need to be closed and they happen correspondingly at the 500's 1391 and 1414 levels.

I was listening to the news earlier and the announcer said in an upbeat and cheery voice that he had good news for us. He said the AAA has announced that gas prices have peaked and we can expect gas not to climb any higher than 4 bucks a gallon and should remain like that over the Holidays. WHAT! Who writes this crap and when was the last time blowing smoke up my bum worked for you? Anything over $2.50 is too high and anything over $3 is recessionary. This country is in deep doo-doo folks with thinking like that.

Lastly: After the bell Thursday, Google said it earned $10.08 a share on revenue of $8.1 billion, in the first quarter.  Wall Street was expecting the tech behemoth to earn $9.65 a share on sales of $8.1 billion. The company also approved a 2-for-1 stock split. The stock is edging higher in after-hours trading.

Midday Report:

The markets kind of went crazy this morning ignoring 'not so good' financial news, rising to the highs made at the beginning of Tuesday, just before the decline. It is safe to say all, of the Tuesday losses have been recovered and congratulations go to the 'Dippers” that took the gamble.

The DOW is at 12946, the 500 is at 1382 and $RUT has paused at 807. WTI oil rose earlier to 104 and has since dropped back into the 103 zone of trading. Brent on the other hand has stayed in the 120 zone. Gold has been as high as 1675 to the low 1672's, currently at 1674. The USD fell from today's high of 79.95 to where it is now at 79.54

Only the 500 has climbed above the resistance set in early march. The DOW and $RUT are floundering in between this resistance and a support a short ways down from their present position. This support tested on Tuesday by all of the major indexes remains intact as we try to make sense of where Mr. Market is taking us today.

Volume is again anemic and the new highs for today are rocking back and forth on a pinnacle that leads more to the downside than upside. I can't trust a market that has very low participation and is obviously being manipulated by DaBoyz. The news has not improved during the morning hours and belies the markets rise so far today.

@SA

"It is too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods," says NY Fed chief Bill Dudley, noting things looked rosy at this point in 2010 and 2011, only to fade later. The mild winter may have pulled forward some economic activity and hiring, he believes. It's a dovish speech that should eliminate any thought the key powers on the FOMC are considering exit strategies in 2012.”

Maybe we will get more direction as several members of the Fed speak this afternoon.

After The Opening:

The markets opened flat to trending slight up. The DOW opened at 12806, the 500 opened at 1368, SPY opened at 137.10, SSO opened at 55.32 and the Russell opened at 797.49 down from yesterday's close of 796.59.

At 10 am the DOW is at 12882, the 500 is at 1377, $RUT is at 802, SPY is at 137.80 and SSO is at 55.89. Gold and silver have spiked up at 1669 and 31.16 respectively. WTI oil and Brent have remained in a narrow zone of trading at 103 and 120 respectively. Most of the Indexes are in between resistance and supports and until these are challenged there is not much one can count on.

Markets came alive pushing up from the morning's opening doldrums to respectable levels for the morning, but will they hold as the session drags on. Green volume is low to moderate and falling as the 'Dippers' and DaBoyz do their thing. It appears we could be in for another lackluster day once the morning traders leave the office for their morning Starbucks which is O.K.

Moving the markets sideways will 'fix' the Bollinger Bands that penetrated the lower boundaries on Tuesday, so this is to be expected. As market volume increases, as it has been for the past 2 sessions, patterns again become important in prognosticating. Let's hope this increasing volume activity continues to increase as it make trading less of a gamble.

Europe had turned sour on the US news and then turned up fractionally as the US markets improved. The FTSE 100 is at +0.12, the DAX is at -0.06 and the CAC 40 is at -0.57.

@leavitt:

Yesterday the market gapped up and then sat in a tight range. It’d be nice if the market could open flat and then move. Instead so much of the movement takes place overnight and then we’re left with scraps during the day. (That is called manipulation by DaBoyz and the Five-Fingered-Financiers that work the midnight shift.)

In my opinion the long term trend remains up – this hasn’t changed. The short term is certainly in question. Was the pullback off the high just a pullback within an uptrend? Or is the bounce that started yesterday a dead cat bounce within a mini downtrend? I do know we don’t have to always trade – there are times to trade and times to lay low, and right now is a time to lay low. And as I stated yesterday, it’s too late to go short.” (I don't know about going short, but it is NOT the time to go long.)

 

Premarket Action:

Before the 8:30 reports the markets were up slightly. The DOW was up 26.00, NASDAQ up 12.00 and the SP500 up 6.90. Gold is steady at 1653 and silver at 30.63. Asia close up 1% and Europe is up fractionally. Brent was trending down at 119.40 and then further to 119.20. WTI oil on the other hand fell from103.10 to 102.60 after the reports. Copper closed yesterday at 3.64 down from 3.65.

At 8:30 The Economic news for Thursday immediately sent the markets down steeply and then recovered somewhat. The SP500 futures were at 1372 and fell to 1364, recovering a half point. By 9 o'clock the markets were flat at yesterday's close.

@dailyfx:

  • As the batch of US news is not good for risk appetite.

U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (APR 7) RISES to 380K VS. 355K PREDICTED, PREVIOUSLY REVISED TO 367K FROM 357K.

U.S. CONTINUING CLAIMS (MAR 31) COMES LOWER AT 3251K VS. 3335K PROJECTED, PREVIOUSLY REVISED TO 3349K FROM 3338K.

U.S. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY (MOM) (MAR) ROSE 0.3% VS. 0.2% PROJECTED, PREVIOUSLY 0.2%.

U.S. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (MOM) (MAR) UNCHANGED VS. 0.3% GAIN PREDICTED, PREVIOUSLY 0.4%.

U.S. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY (YOY) (MAR) ROSE 2.9% VS. 2.8% PROJECTED, PREVIOUSLY 3.0%.

U.S. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (YOY) (MAR) ROSE 2.8% IN MARCH VS. 3.1% ESTIMATED, PREVIOUSLY 3.3%.

To contact me with suggestions or deserved praise:

gary@econintersect.com

Written by Gary









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