The Shell Game Is About To End

March 15th, 2012
in Gary's blogging


This last couple of weeks watching this market reminds me of the old shell game where you try to guess under which cup the little ball is hiding. Every session is a new shuffle and for no apparent reason the ball isn't where you expect it to be. I know where it is going to be in the morning but I am going to hedge my bet and tell you just after the opening.

The 500 closed at 1402 making new highs.

Well, the morning financial reports were not great, but less bad than they have been. I guess one could say the economy is improving, somewhat, well maybe. I suppose one could say the market rise was because of the so-so numbers. What I really wanted to point out is what the continuing claims numbers really mean. They show that there were 14,000 less claimants than last report. Divide 62,000 by 50 (states) and you get a paltry 280 persons per state that dropped out looking for work or were hired part-time compared to the MILLIONS STILL UNEMPLOYED. (If you use Obama's number of 57 states you would get  246 people.) Are we as a nation getting better? For a perhaps more truthful answer why not ask those who are still unemployed and get a realistic view on how the World turns for them. Until those folks can get a 'real' job and buy a house, we are not going anywhere – fast anyway.

Yesterday markets showed a lack of direction and today stocks turned in another lackluster performance. The Markets did open a bit higher for whatever reason the DaBoyz envisioned and then spent most of the day melting up with a short detour along the way. The major averages basically lingered near the unchanged line but the 500 managed to cross the 1400 mark late in the session marking the first time since June 2008. Volume was not exactly convincing today and any spike will pronounce the direction of the market.

The DOW closed at 13251 more or less mimicking the 500.

The big news is that the Russell DID NOT make a continuing highs like the other markets, instead stayed just below its resistance for the third day in a row. This does not bode well for the other markets continuing their quest for higher numbers. You need to draw you own conclusions here as to where the markets are heading.  To me this is just one more nail in the market's coffin of weakness and eventual retreat.

I sure wish I had the guts to short now and probably will be sorry for not taking the 'leap of faith'. Every time over the last 2 months, especially during the last 4 or 5 sessions, I have threatened to take a short position. The quickie I took on Friday was an example of convictions not based on reality. The reality is that there isn't any in this crap shoot. None of this makes any sense and it is just a matter of time before the inevitable happens.

SSO closed at 57.95, SPY closed at 140.65 and FAS closed at 107.40. Gold closed at 1658.61, Brent closed at 122.62 while WTI oil closed at 105.31.

See everyone tomorrow.

Written by Gary

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