February 28th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
I am concerned about the affect of oil prices on the economy. This little ditty from zerohedge caught my eye.
As gold strengthens on the back of the extreme experimentation of the world's (now-sheep-like) central bankers' easing and printing protocols, it does no real harm to the world, but as John Burbank (of Passport Capital) notes, the painful unintended consequence of all this liquidity is energy costs skyrocketing - and it won't stop until the economy breaks.
The negative feedback loop, that we pointed to yesterday as potentially the only thing to stall a magnanimously academic response to the insolvency we see around the world (and the need for deleveraging at this end of the debt super-cycle), of oil prices into the real economy will be devastating not just for US but for EM economies, though as the bearded-Burbank reminds us - Saudi benefits greatly (and suggests ways to trade this perspective).
Flat consumer incomes while costs are rising is never a good thing and while we make new highs in oil in terms of EURs and GBPs, he warns we may soon in USDs also. Summing up, his perspective is rising tensions in the Middle East combined with central bank liquidity provision are a huge concern: "We're actually quite bearish.
The only reason all this liquidity is coming into the market is because things are really bad. It's not because things are good. It's hard to know where things are going to go.
The point is, just because they're putting liquidity in the market doesn't mean the economy is improving."
Brent now at 122.90 fall from the mid 124's earlier and WTI oil at 108.12.
Written by Gary