Prometheus Market Update for Gold

November 5th, 2014
in gold

Daily Chart: Technical and Cycle Analysis 31 October 2014

by Erik McCurdy, Prometheus Market Insight

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Follow up:

Technical Analysis

Gold closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new low for the downtrend from July. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 8 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 3. The move well below the last STCL during the beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through November 3.

  • Last STCL: October 3, 2014
  • Cycle Duration: 20 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through November 3.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 1,250 would predict a move up toward congestion resistance in the 1,280 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from July and forecast additional losses.

The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

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