Most major economic indicators show that the US economy has returned to its normal state, self-sustaining growth. Many seem to have forgotten that economic growth is normal, including the use of slack resources to expand and to build new businesses. Stocks may well find advances more difficult as the quarterly earning season dies down, but there are still a few important reports that could move the markets. The percentage of stocks beating estimates has fallen back to 60% in the current quarter. Employment continues in the spotlight as the number employed continues to increase (now uo 2 million from the bottom) but unemployment remains very high at 9% and weekly intitial unemployment claims have spiked in recent weeks. more »

The big news for the week, competing with corporate earnings, will be all of the stories about jobs. The ISM survey is one of the best indicators of job growth, so I follow that carefully. We already know that initial claims are a negative factor, and consumer confidence is also weak. The market is very sensitive to weakness in economic growth, so the ADP jobs data and Friday's employment situation report will both be extremely important. more »

Mean-reversion behavior in profit margins is expected at some point, but the author thinks the forecasts of lower earnings are wrong. Employment and revenues are also reverting to the mean -- and that is much higher than current levels. more »

A self-sustaining recovery (some are calling it "escape velocity") means that we are reaching a point where economic growth will not depend upon stimulus. It does not mean that all is well. Growth is still below trend and many problems remain. more »

It is important to remain invested at this point, but the wise will do so with caution. more »