Tags: jim welsh

The Shrinking Economic Pie

May 13th, 2015
in contributors

The global economic pie is shrinking relative to the growth rates of the past and that’s a problem. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) growth during 2013–2014 averaged 3.10%, compared to more »

Managing Lower Momentum

April 9th, 2015
in contributors

The slowdown in the U.S. economy continues to unfold as we expected, although the weather has accentuated the trend. For the third straight month retail sales fell, posting a 0.6% decline in February. Excluding the volatile categories of autos, gasoline, building materials and more »

Is the Economy Returning to Normal? Will the Fed Follow?

March 7th, 2015
in contributors

As noted in the January Macro Strategy Review (MSR), we expected U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to slow in the first half of 2015 from the 5.0% rate in the third quarter of 2014, as dollar strength began to slow exports and wages failed to accelerate. more »

Another Salvo in the Currency War

February 11th, 2015
in contributors

Macro Strategy Report for February 2015 After a deep recession took hold in the early 1990s, Japan initiated fiscal and monetary policies to resuscitate its economy and lift the veil of deflation blocking the rising sun. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) lo… more »

Disparate Impact of Lower Oil Prices

January 10th, 2015
in contributors

Whenever a commodity as important as oil moves by more than40% in a short period of time, there are likely to be repercussions noone can foretell with any certainty. What we can say with certaintyis there will be surprises in 2015 and some of them won't… more »

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