Tags: jim welsh

Uncertain Economy and Uncertain Fed

October 13th, 2015
in contributors

In February when we wrote the March 2015 Macro Strategy Review (MSR), we predicted that there would be very little acceleration in average hourly earnings in coming months from the 2.2% annual increase that had prevailed since the spring of 2010. more »

Last Hurrah for Central Banks?

September 8th, 2015
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The Federal Reserve (Fed) launched its first round of quantitative easing (QE) in 2008 and finished its third round of QE in December 2014. more »

Forward Markets: Macro Strategy Review for August 2015

August 10th, 2015
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In the June Macro Strategy Review (MSR) we analyzed the 11 recession recoveries since World War II. We found that the current recovery had averaged an annual increase of 2.36% in gross domestic product (GDP) growth compared to an average gain of 5.36% for the other 10 recoveries. more »

Forward Markets: Macro Strategy Review

July 14th, 2015
in contributors

After the U.S. Department of Commerce revised its second estimate of first quarter gross domestic product (GDP), it reported that it contracted -0.2% rather than a decline of -0.7%. As forecast, the economy is rebounding in the second quarter after slipping in the first quarter. more »

Macro Strategy Review for June 2015

June 16th, 2015
in contributors

The U.S. Commerce Department first estimated that first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.2%, but this did not include March trade data as the information was not yet available.In March, the trade deficit rose to $51.4 billion from $35.9 billion in February primarily due to more »

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