In April, we observed the development of a negative divergence between treasury yields and stocks. While the S&P 500 index moved up to a new long-term high in late April, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note returned to previous short-term lows. Since then, yields have moved down to new short-term lows as stocks have consolidated below recent highs of the cyclical bull market. more »

  by Erik McCurdyThe violent retracement in the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) that we have been expecting developed this week with the index declining 8% and moving well below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from June 2010.… more »

The stock market has been moving relentlessly higher. The rally is now 26 months old and cyclical uptrends that take place during a secular bear market have an average duration of 33 months, so a long-term top could form this year. The divergences in price behavior that have developed between stock markets around the world are warnings signs that warrant close monitoring as the current bull market matures. more »

The Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) has effectively doubled during the past two years. The cyclical uptrend from early 2009 has been rising at an unsustainable rate for the past ten months and will almost certainly be followed by a violent overbought correction. As shown on the following monthly chart, the current power uptrend from July 2010 has caused momentum to surge above the 2008 high and price oscillators have been holding at overbought extremes since early this year. more »

Gold remains in an uptrend. If gold is able to hold near recent all-time highs when the dollar rebounds, that positive divergence would be a bullish sign supporting a continuation of the long-term uptrend. more »