by Jeff Miller Earnings season follows a familiar, four-step pattern:Preliminary -- Analyst estimates are too optimistic, perhaps because they "go native."Confession -- Adjustment and warnings as companies "pre-announce," usually when the report… more »

by Jeff Miller Everyone agrees that the economic recovery has been disappointing. There is no consensus on the cause. Nearly everyone has missed the most crucial element: The crisis of confidence. Confidence is essential to economic success, as we… more »

Risk is difficult to define and more difficult to measure. Risk is often confused with volatility, which is easy to measure. Most investors do not understand that volatility measures variation in both directions. They care about the downside, but are delighted with upside volatility. more »