April 16th, 2015
$ DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:97.66)
Oscillating lazily between 96 and 100, the dollar has been consolidating gains racked up over an eight-month period. The rally, which began last July, saw this vehicle rise by 25%, to a recent high just above 100. Is it recharged for another huge leap?
My gut feeling, looking at the daily chart, is that at least another week or two of corrective action is needed to set the stage for a strong resurgence. Even so, if we are tuned to the lesser charts, looking for the very first sign of this, it would come with a print on Friday at 97.97 (see chart below). Then, if the rally were to continue, pushing past p=98.65, that would strengthen the case.
FYI, my long-term forecast calls for a powerful move, over several years, to highs near 120 that were recorded nearly 15 years ago. If and when that occurs it will be a very different world — one in which, presumably, deflation has triumphed ruinously.
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