S&P 500: Short-term Still Bullish, But Could be Topping Soon

February 19th, 2015
in contributors

by Erik McCurdy, Prometheus Market Insight

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Follow up:

Technical Analysis

The index closed near unchanged yesterday, holding near recent highs of the cyclical bull market from 2009. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.


Cycle Analysis

We are 12 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 30. Cycle translation remains in question. An extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) near 2,091 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by a move well below the last STCL at 1,995 during the alpha phase decline would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 13 to April 2, with our best estimate being in the March 25 to March 31 range.

  • Last STCL: January 30, 2015
  • Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: March 13 to April 2; best estimate in the March 25 to March 31 range.

  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.


Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the 200-day moving average near 1,986 would signal the start of a new downtrend and predict additional losses.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

 navigate econintersect.com


Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2018 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved