November 5th, 2014
Daily Chart: Technical and Cycle Analysis 31 October 2014
by Erik McCurdy, Prometheus Market Insight
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.
Yields closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new short-term high above the congestion zone in the 2.30% area. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.
We are 12 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on September 18. The magnitude and duration of the last decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is now through November 3.
- Last STCH: September 18, 2014
- Cycle Duration: 30 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bearish
- Next STCH Window: Now through November 3.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
- Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from mid-October and predict a move up to congestion resistance at the 2.45% level.
- Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent low near 2.06% would reconfirm the downtrend from April and forecast additional losses.
The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).