November 3rd, 2014
Daily Chart: Technical and Cycle Analysis 31 October 2014
by Erik McCurdy, Prometheus Market Insight
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.
The index closed sharply higher today, moving up to a marginal new high for the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.
We are 3 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 16. An extended beta phase rally that moves above the last beta high (BH) at 86.81 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 85.04 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from November 10 to November 24, with our best estimate being in the November 11 to November 17 range.
- Last STCL: October 16, 2014
- Cycle Duration: 11 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bullish
- Next STCL Window: November 10 to November 24; best estimate in the November 11 to November 17 range.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
- Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from May and forecast additional gains.
- Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 85 would predict a move down to uptrend support near 84.25.
The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).