Prometheus Market Update for the S & P 500

November 2nd, 2014
in contributors

Daily Chart: Technical and Cycle Analysis 31 October 2014

by Erik McCurdy, Prometheus Market Insight

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Follow up:

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher today, moving up to a marginal new high for the cyclical bull market from 2009. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 12 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 15. The alpha high (AH) will likely form sometime during the next 3 sessions. The magnitude and duration of the alpha phase rally suggests that cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves below the last STCL near 1,820 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last beta high (BH) near 2,013 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from November 25 to December 16, with our best estimate being in the December 8 to December 12 range.

  • Last STCL: October 15, 2014
  • Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: November 25 to December 16; best estimate in the December 8 to December 12 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the 50-day moving average near 1,968 would predict a move down to the 200-day moving average near 1,912.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

 navigate econintersect .com


Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2018 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved