August 3rd, 2014
by Poly, Zentrader
Editor's note: This article was previously posted 31 July 2014, excerpted from the weekly paid subsctiption article published 28 July.
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The S&P has been invincible of late, but I believe its days are now numbered. Of course, I'm talking strictly about this current Daily Cycle only, as we all know too well that the longer term trend is in a runaway or parabolic like state. In fact, I'm confident that the S&P has already topped for this Daily Cycle, in theory having spent the past 2 weeks consolidating via a sideways and narrow trading range.
Already onto Day 34 of the Cycle, just 6 sessions away from a standard DCL, the S&P has managed to hover around the all-time high levels, while the asset moves closer towards oversold levels. It is interesting how it can do that, time and time again, to remain near record highs while the technical indicators clearly show the S&P moving towards a Cycle Low. Because this is yet another strong Right Translated Daily Cycle, we have to somewhat ignore the stretched (in terms of length) nature of the Investor & Yearly Cycles and go on to say that I expect yet another all-time high (above 2,000) in the next Daily Cycle.
But before the S&P sees 2,000, we should expect a move lower first, a fast drop over the next 4-7 sessions to mark the next DCL. But yet again, the bears will be drawn in by the allure of a potential major top, only to be fleeced as the DCL becomes yet another "buy the dip" event. Of course, it can't and will not last indefinitely, contrary to what many now want to believe. The next buy the dip event could well be the last for some time, as the next DC leads the S&P over 2,000 and towards a final spike for this great Yearly Cycle.