10 Days Of Strength For Crude Coming

March 29th, 2014
in contributors

by Poly, Zentrader

This is an excerpt from this week's premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%.

Follow up:

The Gold Cycle might be confusing to read, but there is no such lack of clarity with Crude. The current action makes analysis straightforward because we now have a textbook Cycle low in place. Very few Daily Cycles make it beyond 45 days, and this slightly longer Cycle was likely compensating for a shorter 1st Daily Cycle.

This deep in a Cycle, key reversals in price almost always turn out to be new Cycles. We have seen a solid Swing Low result in a clean break of the down-trend, and price end the week with a close above the 10dma. In addition, our technical indicators turned higher, perfectly supporting a new Cycle.

3-22 Crude Daily

With a 3rd Daily Cycle now in play, we should be prepared to see at least 10 sessions higher before we entertain the possibility of a Left Translated Cycle. With normal Crude Investor Cycles, we typically see just 3 Daily Cycle span a total of 20-24 weeks. Excepting the last IC, which was an extended 32 weeks, all recent Crude Cycles have been reliably within that range.

My expectation is that the current 3rd Daily Cycle is likely to be the last of this IC. If that's the case, we need to allow room for the declining portion of the Investor Cycle by assuming a top in Crude by Day 15-20 at the latest. It is difficult to predict tops, especially since the last few Investor Cycles do not provide an overarching trend to lean on for support. Without a long term trend to guide our framework, we just don't know how deep the coming Investor Cycle Low is likely to be.

3-22 Crude Weekly

Editor's note: Oil traded up during the week, closing Friday at $99.87 for WTIC,pretty much where the author projected for the first five of his ten-day projected rally.


Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.

 navigate econintersect.com


Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved