S&P 500: Fair Market Value

December 14th, 2013
in contributors

by Chris Turner

Editor's note: This article was also posted at Advisor Perspectives dshort.com.

This analysis uses the methodology of Professor Robert Shiller for valuation of the S&P 500 currently (10 December 2013) producing a  CAPE PE value of 25.o8.  This is higher than any other values over the past 100 years except for values reached in 1928-29, 1994-2000 and 2003-07.  A correction applied to the Shiller data brings the CARE PE down to 23.44 which then also includes the market peak of 1966 with a comparable valuation.     The Shiller methodology is compared to other valuation methods which also show various amounts of overvaluation.

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CFMV Q3 13 Revised by Chris Turner

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