EURUSD Technical Analysis Update – March 4th Outlook

March 5th, 2013
in contributors, forex

by Nick Simpson, Forex-FX-4X

  • EURUSD moved as low as 1.2965 on Friday, clearing stops under the 1.3000 handle, but ultimately closing the day above previous support as per the D1 chart below.
  • The euro/dollar currency pair has however managed to close under the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level.
  • 150% of the AWR (26 period average weekly range) was covered, and an associated 352 pips, as the recent volatility continues.

Follow up:

  • Any extended downside brings the following technical areas of interest.
    • 1.3000 remains as a key psychological level.
    • 1.2900 is aligned with the 200 period D1 SMA (simple moving average).
    • The 1.2880 area is a previous pivot area for the EURUSD pair.
  • Any correction higher could potentially see the following areas providing an element of resistance.
    • 1.3150, an area roughly aligned with daily low from  22/2/13, previously acting as both resistance and support.
    • 1.3317 is the high from last week.
  • COT report update: Large speculators trading futures contracts at the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) have turned net bearish on the EUR (FX) with a net short -9K position versus the prior net long 19K reading.  This represents a shift from $3.2 billion EUR long to $1.5 billion net short, on the weekly basis.
  • The benchmark S&P 500 index was up 0.2% on the week, after printing a 1.8% decline on Monday.  The US dollar index is trading around USDX 82.30, an area not seen since late August, after breaking above recent resistance on Friday.

EURUSD Technical Update 4/3/13, Nick Simpson,

Click to enlarge


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