GBPUSD: Multi-year Triangle Consolidation

February 13th, 2013
in contributors, forex

GBPUSD Technical Analysis Update – WC 11th February – 2013 – Triangle Consolidation Pattern

by Nick Simpson, Forex-FX-4X

  • Cable has seen a corrective move higher, after hitting the lowest level since August 2012 (1.5628) earlier in the week.  The longer term chart below (fig 2) shows the pound/dollar pair is  trading within a triangle consolidation pattern and has now hit the lower trend line – a key technical area.
  • GBPUSD is now trading at a longer term price pivot and has closed the week above the 1.5757 previous support/resistance flip, but under the 1.5826 prior swing low (see fig 1).
  • With the above in mind, we would not be surprised to see an element of consolidation in this 1.5750 – 1.5830 zone in the near term.

Follow up:

  • Any move higher has the 1.5913 area price pivot and a 38.2% Fibonacci retrace as a focus.  Further to this is the 1.6000 handle which is aligned with the 50% retrace as per fig 1.
  • To the downside we see the 1.5750 area as potential support, followed by the 1.5672 area 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the swing higher, from June 2012 to January this year.  Last weeks low around 1.5629 marks the area where the lower trend line coincides with the current price action; any sustained break under this area would be a constructive technical development.
  • The latest COT report data from the CFTC shows futures traders speculating on the British pound hit a net long 1K versus the 11K reading last week.  This does not however capture the end of week sterling strength scenario.

Click to enlarge

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Forecast, Outlook, Report, Weekly Update For 11th February.

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