by Jeff Miller
Last Week's Data
The economic news was very good last week. The continuning threat from energy prices continues as the major market threat.
- Economic growth is still improving. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index moved slightly lower. The growth index reached another fresh peak, 6.4%, the highest since May, 2010. This is a signal of solid growth for as far ahead as they are willing to forecast.
- Risk as measured by the St. Louis Fed Stress Index, remains very low. This measure tracks a lot of market data in the eighteen inputs. It is not a poll, nor opinions, nor a collection of anecdotes. We should all pay attention to some real data. The value moved to +.032, slightly lower than the -.019 from last week. For more interpretation, the St. Louis Fed published a short paper with a very nice chart that helps to interpret this index. The chart does not reflect the recent continued decline in stress, but it identifies the dates for important recent events. The paper also has a longer version of the chart, illustrating past stress periods. I am not going to run the chart each week, but I strongly recommend that readers look at the paper. In the 2008 decline there was plenty of warning from this index -- no sign right now. The report cites data as of 2/25, reported on 3/3. I would expect the index to move a little higher next week.
- Employment showed solid growth. The employment situation report matched rising expectations, and was certainly better than I thought we would see. The pace of job growth is now enough to decrease unemployment, although we still need a much better pace of growth. The only negative was flat hours worked and hourly wage.
- Initial Jobless Claims continue to improve, below 400K again and the lowest 4-week moving average since 2008. This strength was not part of the payroll employment reporting period, so it suggests continuing improvement next month.
- Shutdown Averted. As I predicted last week, the Washington leadership reached a compromise to avoid a government shutdown. This would have been very bad for the economy as well as for vital services. While the measure is temporary, I continue to forecast that a shutdown is extremely unlikely.
- Small Business Hiring Plans are improving. This indicator has been slow to come around. As Calculated Risk notes, "Baby steps in the right direction."
All signs of progress in a modest growth environment.
The bad news was about uncertainty in the Middle East, energy prices, and the market reaction.
- Gas prices posted the second largest two-week increase in history, thirty-three cents per gallon.
- Middle East tension increased in Libya, and fear of contagion is mounting. There are reports that Iran is behind uprisings in various oil-producing states. So far, the situation in Saudi Arabia seems stable.
The Energy Consequences
Last week I wrote that markets hate uncertainty -- the basis for the spike in energy prices. It is difficult to see how this uncertainty could be resolved in short order.
For the worst case our go-to source is David Rosenberg. Calling the increase in prices a "game changer" Rosenberg notes that there have only been five such cases in 70 years (some of us would turn the page right there) and that four of these instances led to a recession. He goes on to explain why this indicator does not bat 1000. Check out the full story and chart at The Big Picture.
For a more quantitative approach, we look to James Hamilton. He analyzes the auto sales data, noting the reduced role of large vehicles in the fleet. His conclusion is that the oil price increases, while still a negative, would have a lesser effect. "I conclude that the recent oil price run-up can't cause the same dollar reduction in GDP today that we watched occur in 2008." Check out the full article for the comprehensive analysis you would expect from Prof. Hamilton and some helpful charts.
Most of the mainstream pundits believe that current energy prices are manageable, but there is risk. There is speculation in oil at $200/barrel. A change in the Saudi government is the big wild card.
The Obama Administration, via new Chief of Staff Bill Daley, floated a trial balloon on Meet the Press. Daley suggested that they might tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if necessary to control energy prices. The market did not give much initial credence to this idea, mostly because traders questioned the imminent necessity.
This shows two things:
- The limit to market fear. There is also not much contango in the foward curve.
- The willingness of the Administration to act if the time is right. It is something to keep in mind.
Our Own Forecast
We base our "official" weekly posture on ratings from our TCA-ETF "Felix" model. After a mostly bullish posture for several months, Felix has turned more cautious. Several weeks ago we said it was a close call, and switched to neutral. Four weeks ago it was still close, but we shifted back to bullish in the weekly Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll, now recorded on Thursday after the market close. We remained bullish this week. Here is what we see:
- 79% of our 56 ETF's have a positive rating, down from 86% last week.
- 45% of our 56 sectors are in our "penalty box," exactly the same as last week. This is still an indication of significant short-term risk.
- Our universe has a median strength of +14, down from +20 last week.
The overall picture remains slightly bullish. We are fully invested in trading accounts since there are several strong sectors, but we are watching the indicators quite carefully. This has been a very close call for several weeks.
[For more on the penalty box see this article. For more on the system ratings, you can write to etf at newarc dot com for our free report package or to be added to the (free) weekly email list. You can also write personally to me with questions or comments, and I'll do my best to answer.]
The Week Ahead
There are a number of minor reports this week, but here is what I will be watching.
- Energy prices! Like everyone else.
- Initial jobless claims. Let us see if the trend continues.
- The JOLTS report. The BLS reports about job turnover. The understanding of this report is pretty low and it does not move markets. That spells opportunity for those in the know I plan a closer look at JOLTS and job creation.
- College basketball -- especially the Big Ten tourney and the resurgent young Wolverines. This is the month when TV's on trading floors switch from (the muted) CNBC feed.
The reaction of investors for the last two weeks was been interesting. Many were willing to sell at the first sign of trouble--in this case rising energy prices. For many, this was the start of the long-awaited correction. Many are opining that the Fed will be forced to change policy.
Here is a useful investment suggestion. Do you think the Fed is important for the economy and the market? If your answer is "yes" then you should be interested in what the Fed policy is going to be -- not what someone thinks it should be.
The Fed has been quite transparent. Chairman Bernanke is watching M2 and so should you.
Jeff Miller has been a partner in New Arc Investments since 1997, managing investment partnerships and individual accounts. He has worked for market makers at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, where found anomalies in the standard option pricing models and developed new forecasting techniques. Jeff is a Public Policy analyst and formerly taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin. He analyzed many issues related to state tax policy and provided quantitative modeling which helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. Jeff writes at his blog, A Dash of Insight.