by Ajay Shah
Caption logo from Free Speech India/Facebook
One of Pakistan's more remarkable journalists, Syed Saleem Shahzad, was tortured and murdered, probably by Pakistan's ISI.
Freedom of Speech in Pakistan and India
June 9th, 2011
in Op Ed
Euro Crisis: Key Facts and Predictions
June 8th, 2011
in Op Ed
by Elliott Morss
For more than a year, there has rarely been a day without a headline of a new Euro crisis. The basics of the situation are quite simple. I present them below, coupled with my view on where it will all lead.
Scholarly Debt End-Games
June 7th, 2011
in Op Ed
by Rick Davis
(In a number of recent articles we have explored potential "unthinkable" solutions to both the U.S. sovereign debt problem and the fiscal consequences of a suddenly balanced U.S. Federal budget -- given that a balanced budget would suck about 14% out of the country's GDP, meeting the clinical definition of a depression. We discussed the historical backdrop to sovereign debt end-games, and solutions possible without major regime change, others requiring modest regime change, yet more that involve radical regime changes, one that uses regime change to de-securitize the mortgage industry, another that would selectively stimulate "Main Street" America, and most recently one that would stimulate the economy through genuine reform to the health care industry. As a point of reference we have used the report from the Simpson-Bowles commission as a sample framework for how to balance the budget, and have assumed that to prevent a Simpson-Bowles induced depression some form of non-fiscal stimulus would be needed that could provide excess growth to the U.S. economy on the order of 3% per annum over 5 or more years.)
Speculation, not Trade, is Supporting the Renminbi
June 6th, 2011
in Op Ed
by Michael Pettis
My central bank seminar at PKU had a fascinating discussion this week about the internationalization of the RMB in trade transactions. To summarize, although the amount of trade denominated in RMB is still small, it is growing at a very rapid pace. This is often given as very strong evidence that the RMB is on its way to becoming a major, if not the dominant, currency in international trade. My ever-skeptical students, however, were not wholly convinced.
Report: Current Housing Crash Has Surpassed Great Depression
June 5th, 2011
in Announcements, Op Ed
by Guest Author Michael David White. Bio follows article.
Economist Paul Dales at Capital Economics calls the Great Depression fall in housing prices a loss of 31% (MarketWatch). How bad was it then? The post-depression turnaround to re-attain the bubble high took 19-years.
That means if we start today and our rebound mimics the Great Depression, we are good and back to normal in 2030. Which raises the obvious question: Will we be alive?
On the bright side: Dales says housing is currently undervalued by 24%.
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