Dollar Index: Under Control and Moving Along as Expected

March 27th, 2011
in Op Ed

dollar-bill-large Guest Author:  Guy Lerner is the managing partner of ARL Advisers, LLC and the publisher of The Technical Take blog.  ARL Advisers, LLC offers a tactical asset allocation strategy that is strategic, balanced, and targeted.  His blog offers technical and quantitative insights on the equity, bond and commodity markets.

The Dollar doesn't seem relevant anymore.  Recent geopolitical events combined with extremes in bearishness and "oversoldness" could hardly get a rise out of the greenback.  Last week would have been the ideal set up to reverse its down trend, but lo and behold, nothing.  The trend remains down.

Follow up:

Figure 1 is a weekly chart of Dollar Index.  The black ovals over the price bars are key pivot points, which are areas of the most important buying (support) and selling (resistance).  When we last looked at the Dollar Index, I felt that there was a strong possibility of significant downside (click here for article), and I suggested that a weekly close over the key pivot point at 76.65 would nullify this set up (click here for article).  Two weeks ago prices did close over the key pivot by 13 cents but last week, prices closed below this level.  This is a close below a support level and this should lead to selling.  The next level of support is at 75.30.

Figure 1. Dollar Index/ weekly
Click on graph for larger image.

The inability of the Dollar Index to serve as the "safe haven" currency during times of crisis is rather telling.  In particular, with investors extremely bearish on the greenback, last week would have been an ideal time for a strong counter trend bounce.  But nothing developed.  

While a lower Dollar has equated to rising equity prices over the past couple of years, I have to wonder at what point that relationship will no longer hold.  Remember, devaluing one's currency is not a road to prosperity, and inflationary pressures should be strong headwinds for equities.  However, one thing this current Dollar down trend has in it's advantage is that it seems to be occurring at a rather measured pace.  "Things" remain under control and moving along as expected. 

In sum, support and resistance levels are fairly clear with the Dollar Index; downside risks are substantial although the pace of devaluation appears to be manageable.

Related Articles

U.S. Dollar on Verge of Long-term Breakdown  by Erik McCurdy

The Dollar, the RMB and the Euro?m  by Michael Pettis

Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations  by Menzie Chinn

 The Future of the Dollar:  What International Transactions Tell Us  by Elliott Morss

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